Aggregate Effects of Youth Unemployment

青年失业的总体影响

• 批准号: 276251563
• 负责人: Professor Petr Sedlacek, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Makroökonomik und Ökonometrie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/276251563?language=en
• 关键词: Aggregate; Effects; Youth; Unemployment

The financial crisis of 2008 gave rise to alarmingly high levels of youth unemployment. In the European Union and the United States the youth unemployment rate reached 25 and 20 percent, respectively, but several countries were hit much harder. For instance, among the young in Spain and Greece, only about every second or third person had a job in 2009. Recent research documents that the individual losses to earnings for the jobless young are severe and very persistent, disappearing only after about 10 to 15 years. However, even such high costs likely understate the overall burden imposed by youth unemployment because they ignore spillover effects to the rest of the economy.The proposed research project aims to highlight and quantify channels through which higher youth unemployment results in long-lasting scars not only for the young unemployed, but also for the young employed, and also in adverse spill-over effects on older workers. The analysis will build on a life-cycle model of the labor market incorporating a key, empirically grounded, feature: workers with a different amount of experience (gained during employment) cannot perfectly substitute for each other in production. Increased youth unemployment therefore impacts all workers (not just the young or the unemployed) because it changes the relative abundance and of workers with different experience.Youth unemployment can therefore have negative aggregate effects which go beyond the individual scars documented in the data. How severe are these negative aggregate effects? How do they change over time as the affected cohort of young workers grows older? Do existing hiring and firing laws dampen or exacerbate the negative aggregate effects? The proposed project will be able to address such questions.

2008年的金融危机导致青年失业率高得惊人。欧盟和美国的青年失业率分别达到 25% 和 20%，但有几个国家受到的打击要严重得多。例如，2009 年，西班牙和希腊的年轻人中，只有大约二分之一或三分之一的人有工作。最近的研究表明，失业年轻人的个人收入损失非常严重且非常持久，大约在 10 到 15 年后才消失。然而，即使如此高的成本也可能低估了青年失业造成的总体负担，因为他们忽略了对经济其他部分的溢出效应。拟议的研究项目旨在强调和量化青年失业率上升不仅给年轻人失业，而且给年轻人就业带来长期创伤以及对老年工人造成不利溢出效应的渠道。该分析将建立在劳动力市场的生命周期模型的基础上，该模型包含一个以经验为基础的关键特征：具有不同经验量（在就业期间获得）的工人在生产中无法完美地相互替代。因此，青年失业率的增加会影响所有工人（不仅仅是年轻人或失业者），因为它改变了相对丰富程度和具有不同经验的工人。因此，青年失业可能产生负面的总体影响，超出了数据中记录的个人伤痕。这些负面总体影响有多严重？随着受影响的年轻工人群体年龄的增长，他们会如何变化？现有的雇佣和解雇法律是否会抑制或加剧负面的总体影响？拟议的项目将能够解决这些问题。