Does Supranational Coercion Work? Onset, Impact and Effectiveness of EU Sanctions

经济制裁是国际政治中使用最频繁的强制性措施之一。尽管自冷战结束以来，欧盟越来越依赖这一工具，但这个超国家组织的制裁政策受到了严厉批评。这些反对意见包括指责欧盟对错误的目标实施制裁，其影响要么微不足道，要么适得其反。欧盟国家工作队项目解决了这些关切，并通过扩大现有制裁游戏的总体政治经济框架，审查了欧盟制裁的开始、经济影响和效力。将经济胁迫理解为一个循序渐进的过程，德国-波兰研究小组将：-检查超国家组织强制性政策制定的偏见程度；-通过估计金融市场反应以及贸易、投资和发展方面的变化，分析制裁在选定目标国家的短期和长期经济影响；-通过关注风险敞口和风险敞口较小的部门和公司的股市回报，确定这些制裁在两个输出国(德国、波兰)的短期和长期经济后果；-评估欧盟制裁的有效性。这四个次级项目将相辅相成，全面评价1990至2014年间欧洲联盟的超国家制裁政策。为此，欧盟国家工作队将扩大关于威胁和实施经济制裁的现有数据集，并广泛使用定量和定性技术来回答不同次级项目中提出的问题。该项目将启发学术界和政策受众了解欧盟制裁的机会和局限性，并讨论制裁的设计如何影响其影响和效力。它还将导致出版国际上可见的研究文章和书籍章节，加强两个私人投资机构与其所在大学之间现有的研究合作，并最终出版两篇博士论文，这些论文可能由两个私人投资机构共同监督。

Economic sanctions are one of the most frequently used coercive measures in international politics. Although the European Union increasingly relies on this instrument since the end of the Cold War, the sanctioning policy of the supranational organization faces severe criticism. These objections include the accusations that the EU levies sanctions against the wrong target and that the effects are either negligible or even counterproductive. The EUSANCT project addresses these concerns and examines the onset, economic impact and effectiveness of EU sanctions through an over-arching political economy framework that extends existing sanctioning games. Understanding economic coercion as a stepwise process, the German-Polish research team will: - examine the extent to which coercive policymaking by the supranational organization is biased;- analyse the short- and long-term economic repercussions of sanctions in selected target countries by estimating financial market reactions and changes in trade, investment and development; - establish the short- and long-term economic consequences of these sanctions in two sender countries (Germany, Poland) by focusing on the stock market returns of exposed and less exposed sectors and firms; - assess the effectiveness of EU sanctions. The four subprojects will complement each other and provide a comprehensive evaluation of the supranational sanctioning policy of the European Union between 1990 and 2014. To this end, the EUSANCT team will extend existing data sets on the threats and imposition of economic sanctions and use a broad mix of quantitative and qualitative techniques to answers the questions raised within the different subprojects. The project will enlighten academic and policy audiences about the chances and limitations of EU sanctions and discuss how the design of sanctions influences their impact and effectiveness. It will also lead to the publication of international visible research articles and book chapters, strengthen the already existing research collaboration between the two PIs and their host universities and culminate in the publication of two doctoral dissertations possible that shall be co-supervised by the two PIs.