Does Supranational Coercion Work? Onset, Impact and Effectiveness of EU Sanctions

经济制裁是国际政治中最常用的强制措施之一。尽管自冷战结束以来，欧洲联盟越来越依赖这一工具，但这个超国家组织的制裁政策面临着严厉的批评。这些反对意见包括指责欧盟对错误的目标实施制裁，其影响要么可以忽略不计，要么甚至适得其反。EUSANCT项目解决了这些问题，并通过扩展现有制裁游戏的总体政治经济框架，审查了欧盟制裁的开始、经济影响和有效性。德国-波兰研究小组将经济强制理解为一个逐步的过程，将：-检查超国家组织的强制性政策制定在多大程度上是有偏见的；-通过估计金融市场的反应和贸易、投资和发展方面的变化，分析制裁对选定目标国家的短期和长期经济影响；-确定这些制裁对两个发送国（德国、波兰）的短期和长期经济后果，重点关注受影响和受影响较小的部门和公司的股票市场回报；-评估欧盟制裁的有效性。这四个子项目将相互补充，并对欧盟1990年至2014年间的超国家制裁政策进行全面评估。为此目的，西非国家工作队将扩大关于威胁和实施经济制裁的现有数据集，并广泛混合使用定量和定性技术来回答不同次级项目内提出的问题。该项目将启发学术和政策受众了解欧盟制裁的机会和局限性，并讨论制裁的设计如何影响其影响和有效性。此外，双方还将发表国际知名的研究论文和书籍章节，加强两所学院与其主办大学之间现有的研究合作，并最终发表两篇博士论文，这两篇论文可能由两所学院共同监督。

Economic sanctions are one of the most frequently used coercive measures in international politics. Although the European Union increasingly relies on this instrument since the end of the Cold War, the sanctioning policy of the supranational organization faces severe criticism. These objections include the accusations that the EU levies sanctions against the wrong target and that the effects are either negligible or even counterproductive. The EUSANCT project addresses these concerns and examines the onset, economic impact and effectiveness of EU sanctions through an over-arching political economy framework that extends existing sanctioning games. Understanding economic coercion as a stepwise process, the German-Polish research team will: - examine the extent to which coercive policymaking by the supranational organization is biased;- analyse the short- and long-term economic repercussions of sanctions in selected target countries by estimating financial market reactions and changes in trade, investment and development; - establish the short- and long-term economic consequences of these sanctions in two sender countries (Germany, Poland) by focusing on the stock market returns of exposed and less exposed sectors and firms; - assess the effectiveness of EU sanctions. The four subprojects will complement each other and provide a comprehensive evaluation of the supranational sanctioning policy of the European Union between 1990 and 2014. To this end, the EUSANCT team will extend existing data sets on the threats and imposition of economic sanctions and use a broad mix of quantitative and qualitative techniques to answers the questions raised within the different subprojects. The project will enlighten academic and policy audiences about the chances and limitations of EU sanctions and discuss how the design of sanctions influences their impact and effectiveness. It will also lead to the publication of international visible research articles and book chapters, strengthen the already existing research collaboration between the two PIs and their host universities and culminate in the publication of two doctoral dissertations possible that shall be co-supervised by the two PIs.