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International Trade of Arms: A Network Approach

国际武器贸易：网络方法

基本信息

批准号：
288298490
负责人：
Professor Dr. Göran Kauermann
金额：
--
依托单位：
Institut für Statistik
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2015-12-31 至 2019-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/288298490?language=en
关键词：
International Trade Arms Network Approach

项目摘要

This project proposes a network perspective for the empirical analysis of the international trade of arms. The identification of respective flow structures, of their dynamics, and of their causes will be a novel contribution to the positive science of peace and conflict. Our quantitatively-oriented network approach is based on measurements of the export, transfer, and import of arms over long time periods (1960-2010). We will analyze major conventional weapons (MCW) and small arms and light weapons (SALW). For the first time we investigate multiple intra-sectoral relations between countries in order to find out whether these evolve congruently or disjointly, and how they interact. More specifically, we will test popular conjectures according to which the structure of trade in MCW follows to a higher degree political motivations whereas SALW is expected to be rather economically-oriented. Relying on multiple data sources we follow an integrative measurement approach allowing us to close data gaps, to overcome data deficiencies, to implement complex formal models of arms trade, and to forecast future transfers. Our major hypotheses to be tested are derived from New Trade Theory and its focus on imperfect international markets. Inter alia, we will specify memberships in intergovernmental organizations, alliances, and arms control regimes in order to estimate their effectiveness and their influence on trade deflections. The complexity of the underlying data sources requires the development of new inferential statistical techniques for the modeling of valued (i.e.: non-binary) networks - which will constitute the methodical core objective of our collaborative interdisciplinary project. This will allow us to take into account for the first time endogenous network structures and dynamics (e.g. sender effects indicating cumulative advantages, hyper-dyadic system features like triadic closures) going thereby beyond to so far investigated hypotheses based exclusively on attributes of the actors.

本项目提出了国际武器贸易实证分析的网络视角。确定各自的流动结构、它们的动态和它们的原因将是对和平与冲突的积极科学的一项新的贡献。我们以定量为导向的网络方法是基于长期（1960-2010）武器出口、转让和进口的测量。我们将分析主要常规武器（MCW）和小武器和轻武器（SALW）。我们首次调查了国家之间的多个部门内关系，以找出这些关系是一致发展还是不一致发展，以及它们如何相互作用。更具体地说，我们将检验流行的猜测，根据这些猜测，小武器的贸易结构遵循更高程度的政治动机，而小武器预计将以经济为导向。依靠多种数据来源，我们采用综合衡量方法，使我们能够缩小数据差距，克服数据缺陷，实施复杂的正式武器贸易模型，并预测未来的转让。我们要测试的主要假设来自新贸易理论及其对不完善国际市场的关注。除其他外，我们将具体说明政府间组织、联盟和军备控制制度的成员情况，以便估计其效力及其对贸易偏转的影响。基础数据源的复杂性要求开发新的推理统计技术来建模有价值的（即：非二进制）网络-这将构成我们合作跨学科项目的系统核心目标。这将使我们第一次考虑到内生性网络结构和动态（例如，表明累积优势的发送者效应，超二元系统特征，如三元闭包），从而超越了迄今为止仅基于行动者属性的研究假设。