Updating Risk: Mindsets, Post-decisional Defensiveness, and Dynamic Updating Processes in Risk Perception and Risk Taking

更新风险：心态、决策后防御以及风险感知和风险承担的动态更新过程

• 批准号: 316093011
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Peter M. Gollwitzer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Sozialpsychologie und Motivation
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2015-12-31 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/316093011?language=en
• 关键词: Updating; Risk; Mindsets; Post; decisional

The aims of Project P6 pertain to the analysis of the dynamic interaction between goal striving and subjective risk perception, and the subsequent effects of this interaction on risk-taking behavior. Derived from the Mindset Theory of Action Phases (Gollwitzer, 1990, 2012), we want to induce deliberative and implemental mindsets. In line with the model of preparedness-exposure-coping-cycles (PEC) of risk perception, we postulate differences in the preparedness of individuals depending on the induced mindset. Furthermore, we propose that post-decisional defensiveness affects the consideration and incorporation of relevant risk information (coping) and the respective risk-taking behavior in a negative way. To advance the understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, we want to identify the critical mechanisms in the processing of risk feedback by means of different experimental task paradigms in three work programs (1-3) with three studies each. In (1), this dynamic will be investigated by using the selective updating task paradigm. In Study 1a, we focus on changes in preparedness (caused by inducing one of the two mindsets) and the resulting dynamics while participants go through multiple PEC-cycles for various negative life events. In Study 1b, we will further analyze the underlying processes by inducing mindsets at different points of time within the PEC-cycles. Finally, in Study 1c we will investigate the effects of both mindsets on the course of risk perception and its translation into relevant risk-taking behavior. In (2), we will use experience-based risk situations to research the behavioral downstream consequences of changes in preparedness. In Study 2a, we will model the coping with feedback in a sequential risk-taking task as a consequence of the induced mindsets in close cooperation with P7 'Cumulative Risk' (Prof. Hübner). In Study 2b, we will vary the relevance of the risk-taking behavior to the person's self. In Study 2c, we will analyze the different coping strategies that the exposure to affect-rich vs. affect-poor decision contexts elicit. In (3), we plan to study the ramifications of post-decisional defensiveness concerning the dynamics of risk perception. In Studies 3a and 3b, we will investigate whether the re-deliberation of relevant decisions that have been made leads to changes in risk dynamics, and whether this can be triggered even by the re-deliberation of irrelevant decisions. In Study 3c, we will use the selective updating task once again to test whether the effects of post-decisional defensiveness on the dynamics of risk perception and risk-taking behavior are domain-specific (i.e., do not generalize to other domains of risk).

项目P6的目的是分析目标努力和主观风险感知之间的动态相互作用，以及这种相互作用对冒险行为的后续影响。从行动阶段的思维理论（Gollwitzer，1990，2012）衍生出来，我们想要诱导出深思熟虑和实施的思维模式。根据风险感知的认知-暴露-应对-周期（PEC）模型，我们假设个体的准备程度取决于诱导的心态。此外，我们认为，决策后防御性影响的考虑和纳入相关的风险信息（应对）和各自的冒险行为的负面方式。为了进一步理解风险感知的动态变化，我们希望通过三个工作项目（1-3）中的不同实验任务范式，每个项目三项研究，来确定风险反馈处理的关键机制。在（1）中，将使用选择性更新任务范式来研究这种动态。在研究1a中，我们专注于准备的变化（由诱导两种心态之一引起）以及由此产生的动态，而参与者经历了各种负面生活事件的多个PEC周期。在研究1b中，我们将通过在PEC周期内的不同时间点诱导心态来进一步分析潜在的过程。最后，在研究1c中，我们将研究两种心态对风险感知过程及其转化为相关冒险行为的影响。在（2）中，我们将使用基于经验的风险情况来研究准备变化的行为下游后果。在研究2a中，我们将与P7“累积风险”（Hübner教授）密切合作，在一个连续的冒险任务中模拟应对反馈，作为诱导心态的结果。在研究2b中，我们将改变冒险行为与个人自我的相关性。在研究2c中，我们将分析不同的应对策略，暴露于情感丰富与情感贫乏的决策环境引起的。在（3）中，我们计划研究决策后防御性对风险感知动态的影响。在研究3a和3b中，我们将调查对已经做出的相关决策的重新审议是否会导致风险动态的变化，以及即使是对不相关决策的重新审议是否也会引发风险动态的变化。在研究3c中，我们将再次使用选择性更新任务来测试决策后防御性对风险感知和冒险行为动态的影响是否具有领域特异性（即，不要推广到其他风险领域）。