MagmaPropagator: A forecasting tool for location and time of volcanic eruptions due to off-conduit magma propagation.

该项目旨在开发一种基于物理学的工具，以预测地表以下岩浆扩散后裂缝喷发的位置和时间。岩浆通常会避开中央管道，通过曲折的路径传播，最终在火山侧翼或破火山口内打开一个新的裂缝。在现在人口稠密的许多地区都能发现这种喷发裂缝。相关的危险性已经完全基于先前事件的空间分布进行了估计。在拟议的研究中，我们将利用几十年来岩浆传播研究所积累的知识，这些知识现在已经足够成熟，可以创建基于力学原理的预测工具。我们将在三个监测良好的案例中采用我们的方法：Campi Flegrei（意大利）风险极高，并推动了近实时预测方法的发展;埃特纳，意大利和Piton de la Fournaise，La Reunion经常发生裂缝喷发，并提供了丰富的数据环境来测试我们的模型。建立的确定性模型将结合起来，以同时检索轨迹和时间信息。我们将使用蒙特卡罗方法来反演火山的当前机械状态，根据过去的喷发模式和数据同化技术，根据岩浆传播过程中记录的数据更新预测。来自模拟实验室实验和数值情景模拟的合成数据将被添加到数据库中，使我们能够灵活地测试和应用于Campi Flegrei。该项目的成果将是：1）更好地了解不同形状火山的应力状态如何随时间演变，以及建造史如何控制地表火山活动的迁移，（2）对未来喷发口分布情况的长期预测工具，对土地规划有用，（3）根据通过吸收监测数据逐步确定的侵入参数更新预测情景的短期工具。

This project aims at developing a physics-based tool to forecast scenarios for the location and time of a fissure eruption following magma propagation below the surface. Often magma avoids the central conduit and propagates through tortuous pathways, eventually opening a new fissure on the volcano flanks or within a caldera. Such eruptive fissures are found in many areas now densely populated. The related hazard has sofar been estimated purely based on the spatial distribution of previous events.In the proposed research, we will take advantage of the knowledge accumulated in decades of magma propagation research, that is now mature enough for the creation of a forecasting tool based on mechanical principles. We will taylor our approach on three well-monitored cases: Campi Flegrei (Italy) is extremely high-risk and motivates development of near-real time forecasting methods; Etna, Italy, and Piton de la Fournaise, La Reunion have had frequent fissure eruptions and offer data-rich environment to test our models. Established deterministic models will be combined in order to retrieve simultaneously trajectory and timing information. We will use a Monte Carlo approach to invert for the current mechanical state of the volcano based on past eruptive patterns and data assimilation techniques to update forecasts based on data recorded during magma propagation. Synthetic data from analog laboratory experiments and numerical scenario simulations will be added to the data pool allowing us flexible testing and application to Campi Flegrei.The outcomes of this project will be: 1) A better understanding of how the state of stress of volcanoes of different shapes evolve with time and how the edifice history controls the migration of surface volcanism, 2) A long-term forecasting tool for the future distribution of eruptive vents, useful for land planning, 3) A short-term tool to update the forecast scenarios according to intrusion parameters progressively determined by assimilating monitoring data.