Chain Effects of Power Outage on City Functions Based on Areal Characteristics, and Time and Duration of Outage

基于区域特征、停电时间和持续时间的停电对城市功能的连锁影响

• 批准号: 06452408
• 负责人: MEGURO Kimiro
• 金额: $ 3.65万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1994 至 1995
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-06452408/
• 关键词: POWER OUTAGE; ELECTRICITY; LIFELINE; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM; EARTHOUAKE; NATURAL DISASTER; CITY FUNCTION; REGIONAL CARACTERISTICS

Modern societies heavily rely on electric power. These societies suffer functional damage due to the lack/reduction of power when natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons strike.As the first step for developing a new methodology for estimating the effects on power outage, a database consisting regional characteristics and electric power demand of 314 distribution substations in the Tokyo Metropolis using Geographic Information System (GIS) is constructed. The estimation of power outage is by considering the characteristics of the area, and time and duration of outage. From the study of the database, it is found that although power demand of a city area changes with time, season, and areal characteristics, it can be classified into four typical areas (residential, office, industrial, and entertainment) based on the shape of load curves. The pure four elemental load curves were calculated based on the assumption that every load curve is a combination of the four typical curves … More by multiple regression analysis. To estimate the areal characteristics from the power demand, the concept of "contribution rate" is introduced and calculated among 314 distribution substation areas. Using the contribution rate, we could classify the areas considering the characteristics of their load curves.Next, we developed a new methodology based on areal characteristics, time and duration of power outage. With the new methodology, characteristics of distribution substation areas are considered by contribution rate of four elemental load curves, consumption and contents of electricity of the area. In each typical area ; residential, office, industrial and entertainment, major consumer electrical goods and the important function of each electrical good were picked. The new methodology was applied in Tokyo Metropolis and it is found that the effects due to power outage heavily depend on areal characteristics, time and duration of blackout. Using the simulation results, we made maps which show the effects due to power outage in Tokyo Metropolis. These maps can be used for optimum strategy for reinforcing the facilities and prioritizing the measures for power outage. Less

现代社会严重依赖电力。这些社会遭受的功能性损害，由于缺乏/减少的电力时，自然灾害，如地震和台风的罢工。作为第一步，开发一种新的方法来估计停电的影响，数据库，包括314个配电变电站在东京大都会使用地理信息系统（GIS）的区域特征和电力需求。停电的估计是通过考虑区域的特性，停电的时间和持续时间。从数据库的研究中发现，虽然一个城市地区的电力需求随时间，季节和地域特征而变化，但它可以根据负荷曲线的形状分为四个典型区域（住宅，办公室，工业和娱乐）。在假设每一条载荷曲线都是四条典型载荷曲线的组合的基础上，计算了纯四元素载荷曲线 ...更多信息 多元回归分析。为了从电力需求量来估计区域特征，引入了“贡献率”的概念，并计算了314个配电站区域的电力需求量。利用贡献率，可以根据负荷曲线的特征对区域进行分类。其次，提出了一种基于区域特征、停电时间和停电持续时间的分区方法。该方法综合考虑了配电变电站区域的特点，考虑了配电变电站区域负荷四要素曲线的贡献率、区域用电量和区域用电量。在每一个典型区域;包括住宅，办公室，工业及娱乐，主要电器产品及每种电器产品的重要功能。新的方法应用于东京大都会，它发现，由于停电的影响很大程度上取决于地域特征，停电的时间和持续时间。利用模拟结果，我们制作了显示东京大都会停电影响的地图。这些地图可用于加固设施和优先考虑停电措施的最佳策略。少

项目成果

目黒公郎: "Classification of Urban Areas by Characteristics of Power Load Curves" Proc. of 5th International Conference on Seismic Zonation. 2. 60-67 (1995)

Kimiro Meguro：“按电力负荷曲线特征对城市地区进行分类”，第五届国际地震分区会议论文集，2. 60-67 (1995)。

Kimiro Meguro: "Classification of Urban Areas by Characteristics of Power Load Curves" Proc, of 5th International Conference on Seismic Zonation. 2-1. 60-67 (1995)

Kimiro Meguro：第五届国际地震区划会议的“按电力负荷曲线特征对城市地区进行分类”会议记录。

Jun Kawakita: "Study on Estimation of The Effects of Power Outage on City Life" Proc.of 23rd JSCE,Earthquake Engineering Symposium. 735-738 (1995)

川北淳：《停电对城市生活影响的估算研究》第23届日本地震工程研讨会论文集。

川北 潤: "都市生活に与える停電の影響度評価に関する基礎的研究" 第23回地震工学研究発表会講演概要. 735-738 (1995)

川北淳：《评估停电对城市生活影响的基础研究》第23届地震工程研究会议摘要735-738（1995）。

目黒公郎: "Characteristics of Power Demand in Tokyo" Proc. of 4th US Conference on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering. 368-375 (1995)

Kimiro Meguro：“东京电力需求特征”第四届美国生命线地震工程会议论文集 368-375 (1995)。