Chain Effects of Power Outage on City Functions Based on Areal Characteristics, and Time and Duration of Outage

现代社会严重依赖电力。当地震、台风等自然灾害来袭时，由于电力的缺乏或减少，这些社会遭受功能破坏。本文首先利用地理信息系统（GIS）建立了东京都314个配电变电站的区域特征和电力需求数据库，并以此作为评估停电影响新方法的第一步。对停电的估计是考虑停电的区域、时间和持续时间的特点。通过对数据库的研究发现，虽然城市区域的电力需求随时间、季节和地域特征而变化，但根据负荷曲线的形状，可以将其划分为住宅、办公、工业和娱乐四个典型区域。在假定每条荷载曲线都是4条典型荷载曲线的组合的基础上，通过多元回归分析计算出了纯4元素荷载曲线。为了从电力需求的角度估计区域特性，引入了“贡献率”的概念，并对314个配电所区域进行了计算。利用贡献率，我们可以根据其负荷曲线的特点对区域进行分类。其次，我们开发了一种基于区域特征、停电时间和持续时间的新方法。该方法从四要素负荷曲线的贡献率、用电量和用电量等方面考虑了配电变电所区域的特点。在每个典型地区；选取了住宅、办公、工业和娱乐等主要消费电器产品和各重要功能电器产品。将新方法应用于东京都市区，发现停电对城市的影响很大程度上取决于停电的区域特性、时间和持续时间。利用模拟结果，我们绘制了东京市区停电影响的地图。这些地图可以用于优化加固设施的策略和停电措施的优先级。少

Modern societies heavily rely on electric power. These societies suffer functional damage due to the lack/reduction of power when natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons strike.As the first step for developing a new methodology for estimating the effects on power outage, a database consisting regional characteristics and electric power demand of 314 distribution substations in the Tokyo Metropolis using Geographic Information System (GIS) is constructed. The estimation of power outage is by considering the characteristics of the area, and time and duration of outage. From the study of the database, it is found that although power demand of a city area changes with time, season, and areal characteristics, it can be classified into four typical areas (residential, office, industrial, and entertainment) based on the shape of load curves. The pure four elemental load curves were calculated based on the assumption that every load curve is a combination of the four typical curves … More by multiple regression analysis. To estimate the areal characteristics from the power demand, the concept of "contribution rate" is introduced and calculated among 314 distribution substation areas. Using the contribution rate, we could classify the areas considering the characteristics of their load curves.Next, we developed a new methodology based on areal characteristics, time and duration of power outage. With the new methodology, characteristics of distribution substation areas are considered by contribution rate of four elemental load curves, consumption and contents of electricity of the area. In each typical area ; residential, office, industrial and entertainment, major consumer electrical goods and the important function of each electrical good were picked. The new methodology was applied in Tokyo Metropolis and it is found that the effects due to power outage heavily depend on areal characteristics, time and duration of blackout. Using the simulation results, we made maps which show the effects due to power outage in Tokyo Metropolis. These maps can be used for optimum strategy for reinforcing the facilities and prioritizing the measures for power outage. Less