Chain Effects of Power Outage on City Functions Based on Areal Characteristics, and Time and Duration of Outage

现代社会严重依赖电力。在地震、台风等自然灾害来袭时，由于缺乏电力供应/减少电力供应，这些社会遭受了功能损害。作为开发新的停电影响评估方法的第一步，利用地理信息系统(GIS)构建了包含东京都314个配电所的区域特征和电力需求的数据库。停电的估计是通过考虑该地区的特点以及停电的时间和持续时间来进行的。通过对数据库的研究发现，虽然城市地区的用电需求随时间、季节和区域特征而变化，但根据负荷曲线的形状，可以将其划分为四个典型地区(住宅、办公、工业和娱乐)。基于假设每条载荷曲线是四条典型曲线…的组合，计算了纯四元载荷曲线更多采用多元回归分析。为了从电力需求估计区域特性，引入了“贡献率”的概念，并对314个配电所区域进行了计算。利用贡献率，我们可以根据负荷曲线的特征对区域进行分类。其次，我们提出了一种基于区域特征、停电时间和停电持续时间的新方法。该方法从配电所四要素负荷曲线的贡献率、用电量和电量三个方面综合考虑配电所区域的特点。在每个典型地区，挑选了住宅、办公、工业和娱乐、主要消费电器和每种电器产品的重要功能。将新方法应用于东京都，发现停电的影响在很大程度上取决于地区特征、停电时间和停电持续时间。利用模拟结果，我们制作了显示东京都停电影响的地图。这些地图可用于加强设施的最佳战略，并确定停电措施的优先顺序。较少

Modern societies heavily rely on electric power. These societies suffer functional damage due to the lack/reduction of power when natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons strike.As the first step for developing a new methodology for estimating the effects on power outage, a database consisting regional characteristics and electric power demand of 314 distribution substations in the Tokyo Metropolis using Geographic Information System (GIS) is constructed. The estimation of power outage is by considering the characteristics of the area, and time and duration of outage. From the study of the database, it is found that although power demand of a city area changes with time, season, and areal characteristics, it can be classified into four typical areas (residential, office, industrial, and entertainment) based on the shape of load curves. The pure four elemental load curves were calculated based on the assumption that every load curve is a combination of the four typical curves … More by multiple regression analysis. To estimate the areal characteristics from the power demand, the concept of "contribution rate" is introduced and calculated among 314 distribution substation areas. Using the contribution rate, we could classify the areas considering the characteristics of their load curves.Next, we developed a new methodology based on areal characteristics, time and duration of power outage. With the new methodology, characteristics of distribution substation areas are considered by contribution rate of four elemental load curves, consumption and contents of electricity of the area. In each typical area ; residential, office, industrial and entertainment, major consumer electrical goods and the important function of each electrical good were picked. The new methodology was applied in Tokyo Metropolis and it is found that the effects due to power outage heavily depend on areal characteristics, time and duration of blackout. Using the simulation results, we made maps which show the effects due to power outage in Tokyo Metropolis. These maps can be used for optimum strategy for reinforcing the facilities and prioritizing the measures for power outage. Less