Estimating Fertillity and Infant Mortality in Pre-industrial Japan through Micro-simulation

通过微观模拟估算工业化前日本的生育率和婴儿死亡率

• 批准号: 06630023
• 负责人: KINOSHITA Futoshi
• 金额: $ 0.38万
• 依托单位: KONAN WOMEN'S JUNIOR COLLEGE
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1994 至 1995
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-06630023/
• 关键词: Historical demography; Micro-simulation; Shumon aratame-cho; Reproductive process; Infant mortality; Natural fertility; Fecundability; Seasonal fluctuation; 出産過程モデル; シミュレーション; 受胎力(fecundability)

This project attempts to clarify the degree to which births were under-registered in the shumon aratame-cho (SAC) of the Tokugawa period. This has been a serious problem in Japanese historical demography because it prevents accurate etimation of basic demographic indices such as fertility and infant mortality.I solving this problem, this project employs a micro-similation approarch. This approarch has several advantages over macro-simulation. The most importantis that in micro-simulation, we can take into account relatively easily such important factors as seasonal fluctuation of births and monthly death rates of infants. The model for reproductive process and its computer program used in the project are based on the researhes of the Institute of Population Problems and of Potter and Bongaarts. For input data for the simulation, I use data from the Tokugawa period anywhere information is available, but data of the Meiji and the Taisho periods are used when information is not available.The result of the simulation reveals that the degree of under-registration of births in the SAC ranges from 82 to 88 per cent, depending on the levels of infant mortality, and thus 12 to 18 per cent of births were never recorded. This leads us to conclude that birth rates calculated from the SAC need to be multiplied by 1.15 to 1.22 in order to obtain accurate estimation of fertility levels among Tokugawa peasants.

本课题旨在弄清德川时代的“秋门荒见町”的出生登记不足的程度。这是日本历史人口学中的一个严重问题，因为它妨碍了对生育率和婴儿死亡率等基本人口指标的准确估计。为了解决这个问题，本项目采用了微观模拟方法。这种方法比宏观模拟有几个优点。最重要的是，在微观模拟中，我们可以比较容易地考虑到出生人口的季节波动和婴儿的月死亡率等重要因素。该项目所用的生殖过程模型及其计算机程序是在人口问题研究所和Potter和Bongaarts的研究基础上建立的。模拟的输入数据，在有资料的地方使用德川时期的数据，在没有资料的地方使用明治和大正时期的数据。模拟结果显示，根据婴儿死亡率的不同，SAC的出生登记不足率为82%~ 88%。因此，12%至18%的新生儿从未登记。由此我们可以得出结论，根据SAC计算的出生率需要乘以1.15至1.22，以获得德川农民生育水平的准确估计。