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The Demographic Transition Theory in Japanese Perspective

日本视角下的人口转变理论

基本信息

批准号：
12630035
负责人：
KINOSHITA Futoshi
金额：
$ 1.34万
依托单位：
Aichi Konan College
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2000
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2000 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The aim of this project is to examine the validity of the demographic transition theory in Japanese perspective, focusing on the period from 1920 to 1960. The demographic transition theory has been widely accepted in various fields in social sciences for almost half a century after World War II. Because of its implications on population and development, the theory also played an important role in international politics aiding developing countries. However, recent studies, particularly Princeton's European fertility project, throw serious doubt on the theory. The main findings of this project can be summarized as follows :(1) Demographically speaking, Japan was by no means monolithic but had clear regional patterns. For example, marital fertility was high in eastern Japan but low in western Japan.(2) Fertility trends over time also varied regionally. Not all prefectures showed a declining trend in fertility after 1920. Some exhibited an increasing trend and others did not show any trend at all.(3) There existed a difference in demographic behavior between Europe and Japan. During the demographic transition in Europe(1870-1930), marital fertility declined precipitously whereas marital rates changed very little. In Japan, on the other hand, both marital rates and marital fertility declined simultaneously.(4)Multiple regression analyses show that fertility in Japan had a close relationship with agricultural variables and infant mortality. There existed a structure diterming fertility of Japanese which was common to the period from 1920 to 1950. But this structure completely disappeared in 1960. Instead of using a level of marital fertility itself as a dependent variable, using the speed of fertility decline can yield a better result.

本研究的目的是以1920年至1960年为对象，从日本的角度考察人口结构转变理论的有效性。二战后近半个世纪，人口转变理论在社会科学的各个领域得到了广泛的认同。由于其对人口与发展的影响，该理论在国际政治中也发挥了重要作用，帮助发展中国家。然而，最近的研究，特别是普林斯顿大学的欧洲生育项目，对这一理论提出了严重的质疑。本研究的主要发现可归纳如下：（1）从人口统计学上讲，日本并非单一的，而是有着明显的区域模式。例如，日本东部的婚姻生育率很高，而日本西部的婚姻生育率很低。(2)生育率随时间的变化趋势也因区域而异。1920年以后，并非所有都道府县的生育率都呈下降趋势。有些表现出增加的趋势，而另一些则根本没有表现出任何趋势。(3)欧洲和日本的人口行为存在差异。在欧洲人口结构转型期间（1870-1930年），婚姻生育率急剧下降，而婚姻率变化不大。另一方面，在日本，结婚率和婚姻生育率同时下降。（4）多元回归分析表明，日本的生育率与农业变量和婴儿死亡率密切相关。日本的生育率存在着一个1920 ~ 1950年的共同结构。但这种结构在1960年完全消失了。与其使用婚姻生育率本身作为因变量，不如使用生育率下降的速度，可以得出更好的结果。