A Study on Social Loss Caused by Delays in Transportation Project Implementation

由于征地谈判周期过长、各方沟通不畅等因素，导致基础设施项目实施滞后。最初的计划中没有预测到其中许多因素。然而，尽管这种延误可能会造成巨大的社会损失，但公共部门和居民很少意识到或明显认识到这些损失。进度控制一直是基础设施项目规划和运营的最重要方面之一。本研究主要关注交通项目实施延误所造成的社会损失，并试图构建衡量其的方案，旨在提出一些具体的政策来避免这种损失。研究结论主要有以下几点： (1) 调查日本基础设施项目实施的实际情况，明确造成延误的原因 从更适当的进度控制的角度来看，基础设施项目的规则还有足够的改进空间。 (2) 提供了使用手册或程序指南衡量交通项目延误造成的社会损失的方案。 (3)将方案应用于现有工程并计算了部分指标。结果表明，由于项目实施延误而造成的社会损失不容忽视，政府需要提供一些进度控制指南。 (4)提供了衡量国家层面公共投资滞后造成的社会损失的宏观经济模型。 (5)该模型适用于日本。结果表明，缩短建设工期对GDP的影响也不容忽视。这意味着需要研究改进有关公共投资的规则，这些规则很少考虑进度控制并对社会损失产生负面影响。

Delays in infrastructure' project implementation are created by factors such as prolonged negotiation periods on land acquisition, insufficient communication among the persons concerned. Many of those factors were not forecasted in the initial plan. However, although such delays may yield enormous social loss, it is rare that the public sector and residents are conscious about these losses or recognize it significantly. Schedule control has been one of the most important aspects for planning and operation of infrastructure project. This research focuses on the social loss due to delays in transport project implementation and attempts to construct a scheme to measure it aiming at proposing some specific policies to avoid it. The study is concluded with the following key points: (1) Actual state of infrastructure project implementation was investigated and the causes for delay in Japan were clarified It was showed that there is enough room for the improvement of the rules in regard to infrastructure project from the viewpoint of more appropriate schedule control. (2) A scheme to measure social loss caused by delays in transport project using manuals or procedural guidelines was provided. (3) The scheme was applied to the existing projects and some indexes were calculated. The results showed that social loss which was incurred due to the delay in project implementation was not negligible and some guidelines for schedule control are required to be provided by government. (4) A macroeconomic model to measure social loss caused by delays in pubic investment at national level was provided. (5) The model was applied to Japan. The results show that impacts on GDP by shortening construction periods is also not negligible. It implied that improvements of the rules in regard to public investment, which scarcely consider schedule control and exert negative influences upon social loss, are required to be examined.