A Study on Social Loss Caused by Delays in Transportation Project Implementation

交通项目实施延误造成的社会损失研究

• 批准号: 12450204
• 负责人: MORICHI Shigeru
• 金额: $ 4.16万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokyo
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2000 至 2001
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12450204/
• 关键词: Schedule Management; Infrastructure Development; Cost Benefit Analysis; Profit Loss Analysis; Economic Growth Theory; 社会資本; 公共事業; 費用便益分析

Delays in infrastructure' project implementation are created by factors such as prolonged negotiation periods on land acquisition, insufficient communication among the persons concerned. Many of those factors were not forecasted in the initial plan. However, although such delays may yield enormous social loss, it is rare that the public sector and residents are conscious about these losses or recognize it significantly. Schedule control has been one of the most important aspects for planning and operation of infrastructure project. This research focuses on the social loss due to delays in transport project implementation and attempts to construct a scheme to measure it aiming at proposing some specific policies to avoid it. The study is concluded with the following key points: (1) Actual state of infrastructure project implementation was investigated and the causes for delay in Japan were clarified It was showed that there is enough room for the improvement of the rules in regard to infrastructure project from the viewpoint of more appropriate schedule control. (2) A scheme to measure social loss caused by delays in transport project using manuals or procedural guidelines was provided. (3) The scheme was applied to the existing projects and some indexes were calculated. The results showed that social loss which was incurred due to the delay in project implementation was not negligible and some guidelines for schedule control are required to be provided by government. (4) A macroeconomic model to measure social loss caused by delays in pubic investment at national level was provided. (5) The model was applied to Japan. The results show that impacts on GDP by shortening construction periods is also not negligible. It implied that improvements of the rules in regard to public investment, which scarcely consider schedule control and exert negative influences upon social loss, are required to be examined.

基础设施项目实施的延误是由征地谈判时间过长、有关人员之间沟通不足等因素造成的。许多这些因素在最初的计划中没有预测到。然而，尽管这种延误可能造成巨大的社会损失，但公共部门和居民很少意识到这些损失或充分认识到这一点。进度控制一直是基础设施项目规划和运行的重要方面之一。本研究主要关注交通项目实施延迟造成的社会损失，并试图构建一个衡量方案，旨在提出一些具体的政策来避免它。研究总结了以下重点：(1)调查了日本基础设施项目实施的实际情况，明确了日本基础设施项目延误的原因，从更合理的进度控制的角度来看，基础设施项目的规则有足够的改进空间。(2)提出了一项利用手册或程序准则衡量运输项目延误造成的社会损失的办法。(3)将该方案应用于现有工程，并对部分指标进行了计算。结果表明，由于项目实施的延迟所造成的社会损失不可忽视，需要政府提供一定的进度控制指南。(4)提出了衡量国家一级公共投资延迟造成的社会损失的宏观经济模型。(5)模型应用于日本。结果表明，缩短建设周期对GDP的影响也不容忽视。这意味着需要对公共投资方面的规则进行改进，这些规则很少考虑进度控制，对社会损失产生负面影响。