The University of Tokyo

自1996年起，日本在3196个被称为“事故多发地点”的地点实施了为期7年的交通安全专项计划，通过一定的标准进行筛选，以减少交通事故的发生。然而，对该规划实施后交通事故数量变化的分析还不够深入。我们还没有关于在每个地点选择合适的交通安全方案的规范。探测车分析危险情况下的交通流量和驾驶行为的技术是最近发展起来的。这导致了交通安全分析范式的转变，以克服交通事故的稀缺性问题。本研究的目的是在统计分析中把握交通安全专项规划对减少交通事故的影响，以及掌握ITS相关安全服务对缓解危险驾驶条件的影响。根据第一个目标，我们发现行人相关事故的数量可能会减少，相反，交叉路口的紧凑化可能会增加车辆间事故的数量。根据第二个目标，通过引入多个时间参数，建立了缺口选择情景下的行为模型。并通过实验验证了其有效性。

The number of traffic accidents has been increased in Japan The special traffic safety program for 7 years from 1996 was carried out to reduce it at 3,196 sites all over Japan that were called "frequent accident site" and selected by certain criteria. However, the analyzes of the change of the number of traffic accidents after the implementation of such program were not enough to be done. We still have no specification for the selection of appropriate traffic safety programs at each site.The technique of probe vehicle to analyze the traffic flow and driving behavior in dangerous circumstances has been developed recently. This fact results in the paradigm shift of traffic safety analyzes to overcome the problem of rareness of traffic accident.The objectives of this study are to grasp the effect of the special traffic safety program on the reduction of traffic accidents in statistical analyzes, ant to grasp the effect of the ITS-related safety service on the mitigation of dangerous driving conditions.According to the first objective, we find out that the number of pedestrian-related accidents may decrease, to the contrary, that of inter-vehicle accident may increase by the compactalization of intersection.According to the second objective, we formulate the behavioral model at gap choice situation by introducing several time parameters, and confirm its validity though the experiment.