The System for Evaluation of Shelter Planning Based on Patterns of the Behavior of Refuge in Urban Earthquake Disaster

本研究旨在考虑基于城市地震灾害避难行为模式的避难规划评价体系。三年来的研究结果如下：1)首先分析了各地方政府的抗灾计划。从避难行为和避难管理的角度出发，认识到目前的避难保障体系规划存在诸多问题。2)为提出防空洞维护方案，对阪神-浅路地震灾害和新泻中地震灾害对防空洞的需求进行了核查。并对患者的意识进行了比较和思考。3)利用Huff模型，提出了难民选择避难所行为的仿真模型。4)通过问卷调查，掌握地震灾民在居住地外避难的原因。5)通过多变量分析，掌握了避难年限长短与各因素的关系。6)为明确地震灾害中避难所管理的各种支持系统的可能性，我们通过对NPO的问卷调查研究了行政性外部支持组织的可能性。最后，我们试图提出为庇护所管理做准备的方法。

The study aims to consider the system for evaluation of shelter planning based on patterns of thebehavior of refuge in urban earthquake disaster.The result in three years as follows :1) The anti-disaster plan of each local government was analyzed first. And we grasped the present plans of support system of shelters have much issue in the view of behavior of refuge and the shelter management.2) To propose the maintenance plan of shelters, a requirement about shelters in Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster and Mid Niigata prefecture earthquake disaster was checked. And we did comparison and consideration about the sufferer' s consciousness.3) Using the Huff model, we proposed the simulation model of refugees behavior of choosing shelters.4) By the questionnaire surveys, we grasped factors causing refuge of earthquake victims outside of their residence area. And we estimated its rate in case of a big earthquake in Tokyo.5) Using the multivariate analysis, we grasped the relation of the length of refuge life and factors.6) To clarify the possibility of various support system of shelter management in earthquake disaster, we study the possibility of the administrative outside support organization by the questionnaire survey for NPO. At end and we tried to propose the way of preparing it for the shelter management.