Transportation Planning for the Urban Earthquake Disaster

本研究通过对阪神-淡路地震后立即运行的交通活动的调查，在对交通和供给进行定量分析的基础上，描述了防灾计划的方法。我们首先制作了图表，将目前的区域防灾计划与本次地震的经验教训进行了对比，并排序了参考框架，以提取常规防灾计划方法论上的问题。然后，从交通运输的角度出发，给出了区域防灾规划的具体参考框架，阐述了自治规划的方法。我们在1996年建立了紧急交通模拟，并以此为基础，在1997年对以下问题进行了定量思考：1)考虑交通流量和供给的交通容量估算方法。2)根据地震发生时间和经过时间进行规划的方法。3)与损害假设不同情况下的应对方法。4)城市地震灾害交通规划的全过程。在世界范围内，还没有像这次这样严重拥堵的城市灾难的例子，因此，本研究基于这次地震的数据进行分析，可以为我国的防灾交通研究指明方向。我们是在详细掌握交通活动数据的情况下实施本研究的，因此可以说本研究在交通防灾研究中起到了主导作用。地震后，灾害研究与自然灾害学、城市规划、社会学、急救医疗、物流等各方面专家合作。我们的研究可以为这些研究提供基本的发现。

This research describes the methodology for the disaster prevention plan, based on the quantitative analysis of the traffic and supply by the investigation of the traffic activity operated immediately after the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake.We firstly make out the chart compared present regional disaster prevention plan with lessons from this earthquake and ordered the frame of reference in order to extract the problem of the methodology of the conventional disaster prevention plan. Then we describe the methodology for the planning of the autonomy by showing the concrete frame of reference from the side of transportation that must be checked to the regional disaster prevention plan.We built the urgent transportation simulation in 1996, and by using this, we did the quantitative consideration about the following item in 1997.1) The method to estimate the traffic volume capacity that takes the flow of traffic and supply into account.2) The method of planning according to the earthquake occurrence time and the elapsed time.3) The method in order to cope with the situation which is different from the damage assumption.4) The whole procedure of transportation planning for the urban earthquake disaster.There is no worldwide example in the urban catastrophe that the heavy congestion like this time generated, so this study analyzing based on this earthquake's data could show the direction of the traffic study for the protection against disasters in my country.We implemented this study under the condition to have this traffic activity data in detail, so it is possible to say that this study is the one to have playd a leading role in the study about the traffic for the protection against disasters. After the earthquake, the disaster study cooperates with various experts such as natural disaster science, urban planning, sociology, first aid medical treatment, logistics and so on. Our research could present fundamental findings to those studies.