Estimation of global scale aerosol distribution to evaluate its effect on global warming

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To evaluate relative contribution of both anthropogenic and natural emission sources to aerosol concentration, AGCTM (Aerosol Global scale Chemical Transport Model) has been developed. The model can trace source-receptor relations on various chemical species forming aerosol particles. Numerical simulations of transport/chemistry/deposition of aerosols and other chemical species were performed during 20 February to 31 March in 2001. Performance of the AGCTM has been evaluated by comparing the calculation results mainly with TSP (Total Suspended Particulates) concentration at various observation sites in China and with PM10 at Tokyo and Osaka in Japan.The model performance can be summarized as follows: first, the global model with current 2.5x2.5 degree resolution produced relatively good and acceptable aerosol concentrations at many locations in China such as Beijing, Shanghai, Lhasa, Xi'an, Hefei, Kunming, Xiamen, etc. except for those in northeastern China such as Shenyang, and Harubin. Second, agreement of calculation with observation is particularly good in Tokyo and Osaka, where more than 100 observation points were available to cover 2.5x2.5 degree grid cell, indicating importance to get appropriate data for comparison. Third, the model potentially provides detailed source-receptor relationship for various kinds of aerosol particles such as sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, black carbon, soil dust, etc. originated from various source types such as fuel combustion, biomass burning, vegetation, volcano, soil, etc. For the model's improvement, further adjustment of parameters of soil dust emission model and appropriate inclusion of marine aerosols may be required.