A Study on the Dynamic Prediction Model of Effects by Transportation Planning

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1. The purpose of this study : In order to evaluate long-term effects of improvements of transportation system it is important to consistently predict the process of dynamic changes in various aspects of effects. In this study, for the purpose of developing dynamic prediction model involved in improvements of transportation system, we attempt to analyse the dynamic changes of various aspects of effects and interactions among them, and develop them as sub-models.2. Results of analyses and modelings :(1)travel behavior : Based on the travel survey carried out after the opening of railway line in the suverbs of Nagoya, dynamic changes of modal choice behavior due to the change in transport services were analysed. As a result, it was found that the modal switching behavior did not occur imediately after the transport service change but continued for considerably long period.(2)residential choice behavior : Various aspects which are considered in dynamic prediction of residential choice behavior caused by improvements of transportation system were analysed and modeled. In these analyses and modelings, following aspects were considered : over time changes of household's characteristics; interaction between residential choice behavior and land-price ; effects of prospective utility ; effects of housing supply; time-lags in effects; presence of residential change.3. Total model system : Total model system which predicts all aspects of effects caused by improvements of transport system have not been developed well. However, a model system which predicts dynamic changes of residential locations have been developed. In the future, this model system will be extended by incorporating travel behavior sub-models.