Econometric Studies on Projections of Japanese Agricultural Structure

选择大米和畜牧部门进行短期预测。(1)近年来的政策改革基本实现了大米流通自由化。因此，价格在很大程度上反映了供求关系。(2)价格政策的作用降低为设定“标准质量”（低分级）价格的底价。(3)进一步放开大米流通体制将严重影响农业结构。△牛肉：虽然对国产牛肉（和牛）的需求大幅增加，但对进口牛肉的需求却停滞不前。根据计量经济学检验，这反映了质量差异。(2)预计牛肉贸易自由化后，高品质牛肉的进口将会扩大。这可能会抑制国内牛肉行业。(3)肉牛养殖生产结构也将受到较大影响。

Rice and livestock sectors were selected for the short term projections. The results can be summarized as follows :Rice(1) The rice distribution was basically liberalized by the recent policy reforms. As a result, the prices became to considerably reflect the demand and supply relationship.(2) The role of price policy reduced to set floor prices of "standard quality" (lower graded) rices.(3) The agricultural structure will be seriously affected by the further liberalization of the rice distribution system.Beef(1) While the demand for domestic beef (wagyu) has been strongly expanding, the demand for imported beef has been stagnating. According to an econometric test, this reflects the quality difference.(2) The import of higher quality beef was forcasted to expand after the beef trade liberalization. This might suppress the domestic beef sector.(3) The production structure of beef cattle breeding and raising will be also largely affected.