Economic Analysis of the Regionalism in the World Economy

这一研究项目的主要目标是调查全球经济中区域经济一体化趋势发展的原因和影响。主要内容和主要发现如下：(1)经济一体化可能的未来是什么？目前的主要经济集团--欧盟、北美自由贸易协定和自由贸易协定--是否会像一些经济学家预测的那样，进一步整合为两个超级经济集团？我们的理论分析表明，不存在三个区块中的两个的核心组合，特别是当三个区块的大小大致相同时，因此，超级区块的形成将导致不稳定。(2)东亚经济体是否不如北美自由贸易协定和欧盟那么开放？我们的计量分析表明，与普遍的观点相反，东亚经济体比北美自由贸易协定和欧盟更加开放。(3)东亚国家是否应该脱离一个区域经济集团？我们的分析表明，由于各国经济发展阶段的差异，…尝试越多，区域主义可能对国家本身就没有好处。(4)各国能否通过在彼此之间形成一个区域经济集团来避免贸易中断的风险？出乎意料的是，答案是模糊的。因为一国愿意支付的风险溢价被发现与该国的收入水平没有直接关系。进一步的理论分析正在进行中。(5)堆积如山、保护国内产业和经济一体化之间是如何联系的？我们的分析发展了关于这一主题的各种经济模型。分析了国际公共产品的存在对经济一体化的影响。(6)国际外部性是经济一体化中必须考虑的因素。我们的分析表明，认识到互惠外部性和单边外部性之间的区别的重要性。例如，被广泛支持的全球碳税相同税率以避免全球变暖的提议是不正确的，因为全球变暖是一种互惠外部性的情况。较少

The major objectives of this research project were investigation of the causes and effects of the trend of regional economic integration progressing in the global economy. The subject matters and major findings are the followings :(1) What would be the probable future of economic integration? Would the current major economic blocks, EU,NAFTA and AFTA,be further integrated into two super economic blocks as some economists predict? Our theoretical analysis show that there are no core combination of two out of the three blocks particularly when the three are about equal sizes and, consequently, instability in formation of super-blocks would entail.(2) Is East Asian economies less open than NAFTA and EU? Our econometric analysis shows that contrary to the widely held view, the East Asian economies are more open than NAFTA and EU.(3) Should East Asian countries from a regional economic block? Our analysis shows that because of disparities in the stages of economic development among the coun … More tries involoved, a regionalism may not be profitable to the countries themselves.(4) Could countries avoid risks of trade disruption by forming a regional economic block among themselves? Unexpectedly, the answer is ambiguous.Because the risk premium that a country would be willing to pay is found to be not directly related to the income level of the country.Farther theoretical analysis is being pursued.(5) How do stock piling, protection of domestic industries and economic integration interrelated? Our analysis develops various economic models on this subject. It also analyzes the effects on economic integration of the presence of international public goods.(6) International externalities are factors that must be considered in an economic integration. Our analysis shows that the importance of recognizing the difference between reciprocal and unilateral externalities. For example, the widely supported proposal for the global carbon tax of an equal rate to avoid the global warming is incorrect because the global warming is a case of reciprocal externality. Less