A study of the real time predicting method of typhoon wind damages

为了预测台风登陆日本列岛前的风力损害，模拟了台风的未来路径和中心气压。利用最大风半径内的超梯度效应，从梯度风速平衡到台风移动压力场可以估计出地面基本风速。另一方面，通过对历次强台风袭击日本列岛的分析，估计了台风风速与灾害的关系，如：(1)建筑物和结构：日本台风引起的建筑物和结构的风致破坏，日本建筑物的风致破坏及对策，对大跨度桥梁桥面颤振稳定性，斜拉桥缆索的风致振动，(2)浪振；台风9426引发的风暴潮，风暴潮中的近岸波和地形效应；(3)盐害：台风通过过程中海盐颗粒在海面上的产生和在陆地上的输送。揭示了台风风速与灾害的关系。结合风速估算与地面风速的关系，提出了新的台风风害预测方案。可应用于防灾工作的经济规划。

In order to predict the typhoon wind damages just before a typhoon landing in the Japanese islands, the future course and central pressure of a typhoon were simulated. The basic surface wind speed could be estimated from the gradient wind velocity balancing to the moving pressure field of typhoon with modification of the supper-gradient effect inside the radius of maximum wind.On the other hand from the analysis of the past severe typhoons hitting Japanese islands, we estimated the relations of typhoon wind speed to disasters, such as, (1) buildings and structural: wind-induced failure of buildings and structurals caused by typhoons in Japan, wind-induced damage to buildings in Japan and countermeasures, on flutter stability of decks for long-span bridge, wind-induced vibration of cable of cable-stayed bridges, (2) surges: storm surges induced by typhoon 9426, near shore wave and topographic effects in storm surge, (3) salt damage: production on the sea surface and transport over land of sea-salt particles during passage of a typhoon.Then relations of typhoon wind speed to disasters were revealed.Combining the relation between wind estimated surface wind speed and wooden house damages, the new scheme to predict typhoon wind damages were formulated. It can be applied to an economical planning on disaster prevention work.