Analysis and Prediction of Local Heavy Rainfall in Mountainous and Urban Area

山区和城市局地暴雨分析及预报

• 批准号: 07555160
• 负责人: IKEBUCHI Shuichi
• 金额: $ 7.55万
• 依托单位: KYOTO UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1995 至 1997
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-07555160/
• 关键词: Local Heavy Rainfall; Short Term Rainfall Forecast; Cloud Microphysics; Hydological and Meteorological Observation; GPS Meteorogy; Water Vapor Disturbance; Cumulus Scale; Severe Rainfall Prediction System; 水分・気象観測; 水蒸気擾乱; 積雲スケール; 雲物理モデル; ラジオゾン

In this project, investigators have proposed the severe rainfall prediction system as well as they have analyzed the local heavy rainfall. The analysis of local heavy rainfall has been done by twoapproaches. First, investigators observed several severe reinfall events mainly with radio sonde and rain gage under condition of severe rainfall in Baiu. Second, investigators developed a cumulus cloud model which has terrain following coordinate and detailed microphysics model. Using the model, investigators simulate severe rainfall events. The processes and result of the analysis is as follows ;1) Hydrological and meteorological observations have been done under condition of severe rainfall which came mainly from Baiu fronts at the Kuzuryu river basin in Fukui Prefecture. Observation period is June 20-30,1996 and July 2-10,1997. Observations have been done with radio sonds (two to three hourly), optical and normal rain gage (once par one to ten minutes), car bone X band radar (continuous).2 … More ) Numerical cumulus model which has detailed cloud microphysics have been computed with observation data as initial and verification data. Investigators analyze the effect of topography, wind field, atmospheric and thermodynamic stability and water vapor on cloud microphysical processes which control the cumulus generation and dissipation. As results of the analysis, investigators obtained results that the amount of hail generation is important factor for rainfall amount from cumulus. Moreover, they found that water vapor and vertical wind are important factor for hail generation.3) Investigators proposed that GPS is suitable observation system for water vapor observation. Moreover, they developed a new equation system in order to obtain the water vapor disturbance of cumulus scale using GPS.Investigators found that the equation system made good results using numerical simulation data. They also investigated efficiency of the equation system using observed GPS data. Investigation found that the equation system is effective under good observation condition. They also found that the observation data are affected by many kind of error sources.Finally, the vertical wind field observation by Doppler radar and water vapor observation by GPS are proposed as a effective observation system for severe rainfall prediction. Less

在这个项目中，研究人员提出了强降雨预报系统，并分析了当地的暴雨。用两种方法对局地暴雨进行了分析。首先，利用无线电探空仪和雨量计观测到了几次强降水过程。其次，研究者发展了一个具有地形跟随坐标和详细微物理模式的积云模式。利用该模型，研究人员模拟了严重的降雨事件。分析过程和结果如下：1）在福井县久津江流域以白宇锋为主的强降水条件下进行了水文和气象观测。观察期为1996年6月20- 30日和1997年7月2- 10日。用无线电探空仪（每2至3小时）、光学和普通雨量计（每1至10分钟一次）、车载X波段雷达（连续）进行观测。 ...更多信息 以观测资料为初始资料和验证资料，计算了一个具有详细云微物理特征的积云数值模式。研究人员分析了地形、风场、大气和热力稳定度以及水汽对控制积云生成和消散的云微物理过程的影响。分析结果表明，冰雹的产生量是影响积云降水量的重要因素。此外，他们发现，水汽和垂直风是冰雹产生的重要因素。3）研究人员提出，GPS是合适的观测系统的水汽观测。此外，他们还开发了一个新的方程系统，以便利用GPS获得积云尺度的水汽扰动，研究人员发现，该方程系统利用数值模拟数据取得了良好的结果。他们还使用观测到的GPS数据研究了方程系统的效率。研究发现，在观测条件良好的情况下，该方程组是有效的。最后，提出多普勒雷达垂直风场观测和GPS水汽观测是强降水预报的有效观测系统。少

项目成果

大石 哲: "山岳地形を導入した積雲対流モデルの開発" 土木学会年次学術講演会概要集. 2-A. 255-260 (1995)

Satoshi Oishi：“结合山区地形的积云对流模型的开发”日本土木工程师学会年度学术会议摘要 2-A 255-260 (1995)。

中川勝広: "降雨の3次元構造を考慮したレーダー雨量推定手法の構築" 土木学会水工学論文集. 第40巻. pp.297-302 (1996)

Katsuhiro Nakakawa：“考虑降雨三维结构的雷达降雨估计方法的构建”日本土木工程学会水利工程学报，第 40 卷，第 297-302 页（1996 年）

Shuichi Ikebuchi: "Hydrological Forecasting and Scale Issues for Water Resources Management" Proc.Of International Conference on Large Scale Water Resources Development in Developing Countries. KL-12〜25 (1997)

Shuichi Ikebuchi：“水资源管理的水文预测和规模问题”Proc.Of International Conference on Large Scale Water Resources Development in KL-12〜25 (1997)。

Nakakita, E.: "Utilization of Vertical Profile of DSD Into Building Up an Algorithm for Estimating Ground Rainfall Amount Using Radar" Proc.III International Symp.on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radars. 375-384 (1995)

Nakakita, E.：“利用 DSD 垂直剖面建立使用雷达估算地面降雨量的算法”Proc.III 国际气象雷达水文应用研讨会。

Eiichi Nakakita: "Short-term Rainfall Prediction Method Using a Volume Scanning Radar and Grid Point Value Data from Numerical Weather Prediction" Journal of Geophysical Research. Vol.101,No.D21. 26,181-26,197 (1996)

Eiichi Nakakita：“使用体扫描雷达和数值天气预报中的网格点值数据的短期降雨预测方法”地球物理研究杂志。