Analysis and Prediction of Local Heavy Rainfall in Mountainous and Urban Area

在这个项目中，研究人员提出了强降雨预报系统，并分析了当地的暴雨。用两种方法对局地暴雨进行了分析。首先，利用无线电探空仪和雨量计观测到了几次强降水过程。其次，研究者发展了一个具有地形跟随坐标和详细微物理模式的积云模式。利用该模型，研究人员模拟了严重的降雨事件。分析过程和结果如下：1）在福井县久津江流域以白宇锋为主的强降水条件下进行了水文和气象观测。观察期为1996年6月20- 30日和1997年7月2- 10日。用无线电探空仪（每2至3小时）、光学和普通雨量计（每1至10分钟一次）、车载X波段雷达（连续）进行观测。 关于我们 以观测资料为初始资料和验证资料，计算了一个具有详细云微物理特征的积云数值模式。研究人员分析了地形、风场、大气和热力稳定度以及水汽对控制积云生成和消散的云微物理过程的影响。分析结果表明，冰雹的产生量是影响积云降水量的重要因素。此外，他们发现，水汽和垂直风是冰雹产生的重要因素。3）研究人员提出，GPS是合适的观测系统的水汽观测。此外，他们还开发了一个新的方程系统，以便利用GPS获得积云尺度的水汽扰动，研究人员发现，该方程系统利用数值模拟数据取得了良好的结果。他们还使用观测到的GPS数据研究了方程系统的效率。研究发现，在观测条件良好的情况下，该方程组是有效的。最后，提出多普勒雷达垂直风场观测和GPS水汽观测是强降水预报的有效观测系统。少

In this project, investigators have proposed the severe rainfall prediction system as well as they have analyzed the local heavy rainfall. The analysis of local heavy rainfall has been done by twoapproaches. First, investigators observed several severe reinfall events mainly with radio sonde and rain gage under condition of severe rainfall in Baiu. Second, investigators developed a cumulus cloud model which has terrain following coordinate and detailed microphysics model. Using the model, investigators simulate severe rainfall events. The processes and result of the analysis is as follows ;1) Hydrological and meteorological observations have been done under condition of severe rainfall which came mainly from Baiu fronts at the Kuzuryu river basin in Fukui Prefecture. Observation period is June 20-30,1996 and July 2-10,1997. Observations have been done with radio sonds (two to three hourly), optical and normal rain gage (once par one to ten minutes), car bone X band radar (continuous).2 … More ) Numerical cumulus model which has detailed cloud microphysics have been computed with observation data as initial and verification data. Investigators analyze the effect of topography, wind field, atmospheric and thermodynamic stability and water vapor on cloud microphysical processes which control the cumulus generation and dissipation. As results of the analysis, investigators obtained results that the amount of hail generation is important factor for rainfall amount from cumulus. Moreover, they found that water vapor and vertical wind are important factor for hail generation.3) Investigators proposed that GPS is suitable observation system for water vapor observation. Moreover, they developed a new equation system in order to obtain the water vapor disturbance of cumulus scale using GPS.Investigators found that the equation system made good results using numerical simulation data. They also investigated efficiency of the equation system using observed GPS data. Investigation found that the equation system is effective under good observation condition. They also found that the observation data are affected by many kind of error sources.Finally, the vertical wind field observation by Doppler radar and water vapor observation by GPS are proposed as a effective observation system for severe rainfall prediction. Less