On a statistical prediction for a variation of typhoon formation, intensification, and course with the sea surface temperature rise in the Northwest Pacific

本文分析了暖季西北热带太平洋中部（10- 21 N，120- 160 E）月平均平滑海温（SST）与台风（包括热带风暴）生成和加强的关系。在28.8 ℃ ~ 29.8 ℃的海温范围内，1 × 10 ~（-1）纬度× 1 × 10 ~（-1）经度平方单位海域的台风生成效率较高，约为0.005个台风/月，最大值出现在29.4 ℃ ~ 29.6 ℃。在28.6 ℃ ~ 30.0 ℃的SST范围内，6 h加深速率大于5 hPa的台风相对频数超过35%，最大值出现在29.4 ℃ ~ 29.6 ℃，并预测了台风发生频数随SST升高的变化。结果表明，在海温分布比现状高0.2 ℃时，台风数最高，但每年仅增加0.1个台风。结果还表明，当海表温度比现状高1.0 ℃时，台风数减少2.0个，当海表温度高2.0 ℃时，台风数减少2.7个，并且中心气压加深率在一定海表温度范围内表现为一个随机分布，利用这些统计量可以模拟给定海表温度分布下的台风生成、加强和过程。在不久的将来，是否会有一个超级台风出现，并伴随着海温的上升，这将是一个调查。

The monthly mean data smoothed sea surface temperature (SST) was analyzed in relation to formation and intensification of typhoons (including tropical storms) in the warm season in the central part (10-21N,120-160E) of the Northwest tropical Pacific. The efficiency of typhoon formation in unit sea area of 1ﾟ latitude by 1ﾟ longitude square shows high values of about 0.005 typhoon per month in the SST range of 28.8ﾟC to 29.8ﾟC with the maximum value in the 29.4ﾟC to 29.6ﾟC range. The relative frequency of typhoons with the deepening rate above 5 hPa per 6 hours exceeds 35% in the 28.6ﾟC to 30.0ﾟC SST range with the maximum value in the 29.4ﾟC to 29.6ﾟC range.A variation of the occurrence frequency of typhoons with SST rise was predicted. The result indicates that the highest value, while it is only 0.1 typhoon increase per year, at the 0.2ﾟC higher SST distribution than at the present state. It also indicates that 2.0 typhoons decrease at 1.0ﾟC higher SST than the present state, and 2.7 typhoons decrease at 2.0ﾟC higher SST.Furthermore, a deepening rate of the central pressure was represented as a stochastic distribution in a SST range.Using these statistics, a possibility for simulation of typhoon formation, intensification and course at a given SST distribution has been obtained. In the near future, whether a super typhoon will occur with SST rise or not will be investigated.