On a statistical prediction for a variation of typhoon formation, intensification, and course with the sea surface temperature rise in the Northwest Pacific

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The monthly mean data smoothed sea surface temperature (SST) was analyzed in relation to formation and intensification of typhoons (including tropical storms) in the warm season in the central part (10-21N,120-160E) of the Northwest tropical Pacific. The efficiency of typhoon formation in unit sea area of 1ﾟ latitude by 1ﾟ longitude square shows high values of about 0.005 typhoon per month in the SST range of 28.8ﾟC to 29.8ﾟC with the maximum value in the 29.4ﾟC to 29.6ﾟC range. The relative frequency of typhoons with the deepening rate above 5 hPa per 6 hours exceeds 35% in the 28.6ﾟC to 30.0ﾟC SST range with the maximum value in the 29.4ﾟC to 29.6ﾟC range.A variation of the occurrence frequency of typhoons with SST rise was predicted. The result indicates that the highest value, while it is only 0.1 typhoon increase per year, at the 0.2ﾟC higher SST distribution than at the present state. It also indicates that 2.0 typhoons decrease at 1.0ﾟC higher SST than the present state, and 2.7 typhoons decrease at 2.0ﾟC higher SST.Furthermore, a deepening rate of the central pressure was represented as a stochastic distribution in a SST range.Using these statistics, a possibility for simulation of typhoon formation, intensification and course at a given SST distribution has been obtained. In the near future, whether a super typhoon will occur with SST rise or not will be investigated.