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On a statistical prediction for a variation of typhoon formation, intensification, and course with the sea surface temperature rise in the Northwest Pacific

西北太平洋台风形成、强度和路径随海面温度上升变化的统计预测

基本信息

批准号：
07680496
负责人：
FUJII Takeshi
金额：
$ 0.96万
依托单位：
Kyoto Sangyo University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1995
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1995 至 1997
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The monthly mean data smoothed sea surface temperature (SST) was analyzed in relation to formation and intensification of typhoons (including tropical storms) in the warm season in the central part (10-21N,120-160E) of the Northwest tropical Pacific. The efficiency of typhoon formation in unit sea area of 1ﾟ latitude by 1ﾟ longitude square shows high values of about 0.005 typhoon per month in the SST range of 28.8ﾟC to 29.8ﾟC with the maximum value in the 29.4ﾟC to 29.6ﾟC range. The relative frequency of typhoons with the deepening rate above 5 hPa per 6 hours exceeds 35% in the 28.6ﾟC to 30.0ﾟC SST range with the maximum value in the 29.4ﾟC to 29.6ﾟC range.A variation of the occurrence frequency of typhoons with SST rise was predicted. The result indicates that the highest value, while it is only 0.1 typhoon increase per year, at the 0.2ﾟC higher SST distribution than at the present state. It also indicates that 2.0 typhoons decrease at 1.0ﾟC higher SST than the present state, and 2.7 typhoons decrease at 2.0ﾟC higher SST.Furthermore, a deepening rate of the central pressure was represented as a stochastic distribution in a SST range.Using these statistics, a possibility for simulation of typhoon formation, intensification and course at a given SST distribution has been obtained. In the near future, whether a super typhoon will occur with SST rise or not will be investigated.

分析了西北热带太平洋中部（10-21N,120-160E）暖季月平均海温（SST）与台风（包括热带风暴）形成和增强的关系。在1个<s:1>纬度× 1个<s:1>经度平方的单位海区，台风形成效率在28.8 ~ 29.8的海温范围内最高，约为0.005个台风/月，在29.4 ~ 29.6的海温范围内最高。深度大于5hpa / 6h的台风相对频率在28.6 ~ 30.0的海表温度范围内超过35%，在29.4 ~ 29.6的海表温度范围内最大值。预测了台风发生频率随海温上升的变化规律。结果表明，在海表温度高0.2 oc时，海表温度的年增幅最大，但仅为0.1个台风。2.0台风在高于当前海温1.0℃时减弱，2.7台风在高于当前海温2.0℃时减弱。此外，中心压力的加深速率在海温范围内表现为随机分布。利用这些统计数据，可以模拟给定海温分布下的台风形成、增强和过程。近期是否会出现海温上升的超强台风，我们将进行研究。