Effective Information Systems and Decision Making in Risk Management System

本研究项目关注的是自然灾害应急体系这一风险管理体系，研究成果主要分为五类。在组织内部：在调查了日本机构制定的一些灾难补救手册或计划后，我们提出了一个基本的“沟通周期”模型，以确保组织内的沟通顺畅。此外，将基本循环引入到我们的分层决策模型中，并将其应用于Fortune(1995)提出的系统故障方法论中，结果表明该模型是有效的。对于多个组织或机构之间的沟通：这一主题是在一个代理系统模型中进行分析的。介绍了一种部分复制网络型系统，并基于并行遗传算法对其有效性进行了计算机仿真评估。并在概率模型的基础上，用解析的方法提出了一个机构在不直接提交的情况下支持其他机构的最优标准。对1999年9月底发生在东海村的重大事故进行分析：从组织事故的角度抽象出一些问题，并对居民事故信息延迟公布的原因进行了调查。识别导致人们对信息不信任的失败模式：认知实验表明，对信息的不信任是由某种不断发生的失败模式引起的，而不是错误信息的发生率。信息整合方式的选择：最后，我们确定了最优的整合方法，以最大限度地减少不可避免的信息误判造成的预期损失。

This research project paid attentions to remedial systems for natural disaster which are risk management systems, and the results from our research are classified into five categories as below.1. Within an organization : After investigating some manuals or plans for disaster remedy which agencies in Japan created, we proposed a basic "communication cycle" model for smooth communication within an organization. Moreover, the basic cycle was incorporated into our hierarchical decision model and it is shown that the model with the cycle is effective when it is used in System Failures Methodology proposed by Fortune (1995).2. For communication between plural organizations or agencies : This theme was analyzed in apoly-agents system model. A partially duplicated network type of system was introduced, and its effectiveness were evaluated by computer simulation on the basis of parallel genetic algorithm. Also, we proposed the optimal criterion for an agency's support to other agency under no direct submission by analytical approach on the basis of a probabilistic model.3. Analyzing the criticality accident happened in Tokai-mura, on the end of September, 1999 : Some problems were abstracted from the point of organizational accident view, and the reason why announcements of accident information for residents were delayed was investigated.4. Identifying the pattern of failures which leads to human's distrust on information : It was shown by cognitive experiments that distrust on information resulted from some pattern of continuously occurrences of failures rather than the rate of occurrences of error information.5. Selecting the way how to integrate information : Lastly, we determined the optimal integration method to minimize the expected loss from misjudgments induced from mal-information which were unavoidable.