Theoretical and Empirical Study of Effectiveness of IMF Conditionality in the Economic Reconstruction of the Philippines : Assessment of IMF Conditionality for Asian Crisis

泰国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和韩国等在1997年亚洲金融危机中遭受严重打击的国家，已从1999年年中开始迅速恢复经济。然而，自2000年底以来，复苏变得越来越弱，结构性改革似乎有所拖延。在国际货币基金组织的支持下，除马来西亚以外的其他国家实施了改革，然而，自2001年初以来，它们改变了立场，转向提振经济，而不是改革。在泰国发生了政府更迭，在韩国和印度尼西亚也出现了越来越多的批评政府的运动。由IMF指导的改革通常是在每个国家的政治和经济大国的最大利益下艰难实施的。20世纪80年代菲律宾的经验表明，国际货币基金组织的条件性必须通过政治权力平衡来实施，并面临许多障碍。本文基于t…考察了国际货币基金组织条件性条件对亚洲金融危机的有效性在政治经济学的框架下，作者对IMF对菲律宾经济重建的条件进行了研究。首先，笔者指出，(1)亚洲金融危机对菲律宾的损害相对较小，部分原因是金融改革，如加强审慎监管和中央银行改革。(2)另一方面，国际货币基金组织的紧缩政策在很长一段时间内未能提振菲律宾经济。其次，在菲律宾经济停滞十多年的诸多因素中，有两个重要因素：(1)国际货币基金组织要求激进的结构改革与国内经济和政治力量之间的摩擦；(2)从马科斯政权垮台到阿基诺政府诞生的政治不稳定过程，这些都与国际货币基金组织的条件性密切相关。更重要的是从政治经济学的角度分析IMF条件性的影响，届时我们将考虑亚洲国家如何从危机中复苏。较少

Countries seriously damaged by the Asian Crisis in 1997 such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Korea had rapidly begun to restore their economies from mid- 1999. However, the recovery becomes to be weakened and the structural reforms seem to delay since the end of 2000. Supported by IMF, the countries except Malaysia had implemented the reforms, however, they shifted their stance for boosting their economies rather than reform since the early 2001. In Thailand there was a change of government, in Korea and Indonesia there are more and more movements to criticize the governments as well. The reforms directed by IMF are usually implemented struggling with the bested interest of political and economic powers in each country. The conditionality of IMF has to be implemented through the political power balance and to be encountered with many impediments, as the Philippines' experiences showed in 1980s.This study examines the effectiveness of IMF conditionality for Asian Crisis, based on t … More he author's study of IMF conditionality for the reconstruction of the Philippine economy in the framework of political economy. First of all, the author indicates that (1) the damage of Asian Crisis was relatively slighter in the Philippines partly due to the financial reform such as tightening prudential regulation and the central bank reform (2) however on the other hand, the IMF tightening policies failed to boost the Philippine economy for a long time. Secondly, among the many factors for the Philippine economic stagnation more than ten-years, there are two important factors : (1) the friction between IMF for radical structural reform and the domestic economic and political powers, and (2) the political instable process from collapse of Marcos regime to the birth of Aquino Government, and these were closely connected to IMF conditionality. It will be more important to analyze the impacts of IMF conditionality through the political economy when we will consider how the Asian countries will recover from the Crisis hereafter. Less