Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Economic Liberalization Process and the Effect on the Manufacturing Sector in the Philippines

(1)本研究首先分析了20世纪80年代以来菲律宾的外商直接投资趋势、出口结构和产业结构，确定了以下几个方面：制造业出口，特别是电子产品出口。自20世纪80年代以来，电子和服装（主要是寄售）迅速增长，但制造业的结构变化并没有成功地进行，因此，菲律宾制造业的停滞在80年代未能打破。其主要原因是围绕制造业的利益结构没有改变，从而导致了80年代制造业结构变化的障碍。菲律宾经济自由化的法律的制度（外国直接投资法、外贸制度和金融制度等）直到1990年中期才做好准备 关于我们 S. (2)其次，在本文的研究中，我把重点放在了贸易自由化进程，特别是东盟自由贸易区（AFTA），这被认为是贸易自由化进程的重要进展。本文分析了东盟自由贸易区的形成过程，重点分析了东盟自由贸易区的商业决策过程和政府决策过程，并分析了东盟自由贸易区对菲律宾经济的影响。东盟自由贸易区的影响是：（a）首先，菲律宾的商界终于自己认识到，菲律宾制造业的高度保护制度终于被摧毁，这一过程再也无法逆转。(b)其次，预测了东盟自由贸易区对菲律宾经济的影响。菲律宾电子工业是东盟最大的贸易伙伴。在此基础上，笔者预测东盟自由贸易区不仅将促进东盟内部的水平分工和产业内贸易，而且将促进东盟内部的原材料和机械制造业投入品的出口。(4)除了对菲律宾制造业的结构改革进行实证研究外，本文还研究了分析菲律宾经济自由化进程及其效果的理论方法。笔者认为，“政治经济学”是分析这两个问题最合适的方法，并试图创造性地将这一方法运用到菲律宾经济的具体分析中。少

(1) First of all in this research, I have analyzed the tendency of foreign direct investment, the structure of Philippine export and the industrial structure in the Philippines since 1980's and identified the followings : the manufacturing exports, specifically the export of elect. & electronics and apparels (mainly on consignment base) have increased quickly since 1980's, however, the structural change of the manufacturing sector did not carry out successfully and as the result, the stagnation of Philippine manufacturing sector could not be broken during 980's. The main reason is that the interest stuructures surrounding the manufacturing sector did not changed and as the result, unchanged interest structures continued to the inpediment for the structural change of the manufacturing sector during 1980's.The legal system for the liberalization of the Philippine economy (foreign direct investment law, external trade system and financial system etc.) has not prepared well until mid-1990' … More s.(2) Secondly, in this research, I focused on the trade liberalization process, specifically on AFTA (Asean Free Trade Area) which was considered as the important progress for the trade liberalization process. I analyzed AFTA focusing on the decision making process of both business circle and government for the agreement and then considered the effect on the Philippine economy. The effect of AFTA is that (a) at first, the business circle in the Philippines have finally identified by themselves that the high protective system for the Philippine manufacturing sector was finally being destroyed and this process could not be reversed anymore. (b) secondly, I forecasted the effect of AFTA on the Philippine economy focusing on the elect.& electronics industry of the Philippines which was the biggest ezports with ASEAN in value. Based on this analysis, I have forecasted that AFTA will encourage not only the horizontal division of labor and intra-industry trade but also the export of the materials and inputs of machinary-manufactures whithin ASEAN.(4) Aside from the empirical study of the strructural reform of the Philippine manufacturing sector, I have studied the theoretical method for analyzing the liberalization process of the Philippine economy and the effect. I have considered the "political Economy" is the most appropriate method for analyzing them and tried to apply the method creatively to the analysis of teh Philippine economy in detail. Less