Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Economic Liberalization Process and the Effect on the Manufacturing Sector in the Philippines

(1)本研究首先分析了S 80年代以来的外商直接投资趋势、菲律宾出口结构以及菲律宾的产业结构，确定了以下三个方面：制造业出口，特别是制造业出口。20世纪80年代以来，以代销为主的电子、服装等行业迅速增长，但由于制造业结构转型没有顺利进行，致使菲律宾制造业停滞不前的局面未能在80年代被打破。主要原因是围绕制造业的利益结构没有改变，因此，利益结构的变化继续是80年代制造业结构变化的基础。菲律宾经济自由化的法律制度(外商直接投资法、对外贸易制度、金融制度等)。直到20世纪90年代中期才做好准备‘…其次，本文重点研究了贸易自由化进程，特别是东盟自由贸易区这一被认为是贸易自由化进程的重要进展。我对AFTA进行了分析，重点分析了商界和政府对该协定的决策过程，并考虑了对菲律宾经济的影响。AFTA的作用是：(A)首先，菲律宾商界终于认识到，对菲律宾制造业的高度保护体系终于被摧毁，这一过程无法再逆转。(B)其次，我预测了自贸协定对菲律宾经济的影响，重点是菲律宾的电子工业，这是与东盟价值最大的港口。在此基础上，笔者预测，自贸协定不仅将促进东盟地区的横向分工和产业内贸易，而且还将促进机械制造业的材料和投入的出口。(4)除了对菲律宾制造业结构改革的实证研究外，我还研究了分析菲律宾经济自由化进程及其效应的理论方法。笔者认为“政治经济学”是最合适的分析方法，并尝试将这种方法创造性地应用于菲律宾经济的详细分析中。较少

(1) First of all in this research, I have analyzed the tendency of foreign direct investment, the structure of Philippine export and the industrial structure in the Philippines since 1980's and identified the followings : the manufacturing exports, specifically the export of elect. & electronics and apparels (mainly on consignment base) have increased quickly since 1980's, however, the structural change of the manufacturing sector did not carry out successfully and as the result, the stagnation of Philippine manufacturing sector could not be broken during 980's. The main reason is that the interest stuructures surrounding the manufacturing sector did not changed and as the result, unchanged interest structures continued to the inpediment for the structural change of the manufacturing sector during 1980's.The legal system for the liberalization of the Philippine economy (foreign direct investment law, external trade system and financial system etc.) has not prepared well until mid-1990' … More s.(2) Secondly, in this research, I focused on the trade liberalization process, specifically on AFTA (Asean Free Trade Area) which was considered as the important progress for the trade liberalization process. I analyzed AFTA focusing on the decision making process of both business circle and government for the agreement and then considered the effect on the Philippine economy. The effect of AFTA is that (a) at first, the business circle in the Philippines have finally identified by themselves that the high protective system for the Philippine manufacturing sector was finally being destroyed and this process could not be reversed anymore. (b) secondly, I forecasted the effect of AFTA on the Philippine economy focusing on the elect.& electronics industry of the Philippines which was the biggest ezports with ASEAN in value. Based on this analysis, I have forecasted that AFTA will encourage not only the horizontal division of labor and intra-industry trade but also the export of the materials and inputs of machinary-manufactures whithin ASEAN.(4) Aside from the empirical study of the strructural reform of the Philippine manufacturing sector, I have studied the theoretical method for analyzing the liberalization process of the Philippine economy and the effect. I have considered the "political Economy" is the most appropriate method for analyzing them and tried to apply the method creatively to the analysis of teh Philippine economy in detail. Less