Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Economic Liberalization Process and the Effect on the Manufacturing Sector in the Philippines

(1)首先，在本研究中，我分析了外国直接投资的趋势，菲律宾的出口结构和菲律宾的产业结构，自1980年代以来，确定了以下几点：制造业出口，特别是选举的出口。自20世纪80年代以来，电子产品和服装（主要是寄售）迅速增长，然而，制造业的结构变化并没有成功地进行，因此，菲律宾制造业的停滞在80年代无法打破。主要原因是围绕制造业的利益结构没有发生变化，因此，不变的利益结构继续阻碍了80年代制造业的结构变化。菲律宾经济自由化的法律体系（外国直接投资法、对外贸易制度和金融制度等）直到20世纪90年代中期才准备好……(2)其次，在本研究中，我重点关注贸易自由化进程，特别是东盟自由贸易区（AFTA），这被认为是贸易自由化进程的重要进展。我分析了AFTA，重点是商业界和政府对协议的决策过程，然后考虑对菲律宾经济的影响。AFTA的效果是：(a)首先，菲律宾商界终于自己认识到，菲律宾制造业的高度保护制度终于被摧毁了，这个过程不能再逆转了。(b)其次，我预测了AFTA对菲律宾经济的影响，重点是选举。菲律宾的电子工业是东盟最大的电子口岸。基于这一分析，我预测东盟自由贸易区不仅将鼓励东盟内部的横向分工和产业内贸易，而且还将鼓励东盟内部的材料和机械制造投入的出口。(4)除了对菲律宾制造业的结构性改革进行实证研究外，还研究了分析菲律宾经济自由化进程及其效果的理论方法。我认为“政治经济学”是最适合分析它们的方法，并试图创造性地将这种方法应用于对菲律宾经济的详细分析。少

(1) First of all in this research, I have analyzed the tendency of foreign direct investment, the structure of Philippine export and the industrial structure in the Philippines since 1980's and identified the followings : the manufacturing exports, specifically the export of elect. & electronics and apparels (mainly on consignment base) have increased quickly since 1980's, however, the structural change of the manufacturing sector did not carry out successfully and as the result, the stagnation of Philippine manufacturing sector could not be broken during 980's. The main reason is that the interest stuructures surrounding the manufacturing sector did not changed and as the result, unchanged interest structures continued to the inpediment for the structural change of the manufacturing sector during 1980's.The legal system for the liberalization of the Philippine economy (foreign direct investment law, external trade system and financial system etc.) has not prepared well until mid-1990' … More s.(2) Secondly, in this research, I focused on the trade liberalization process, specifically on AFTA (Asean Free Trade Area) which was considered as the important progress for the trade liberalization process. I analyzed AFTA focusing on the decision making process of both business circle and government for the agreement and then considered the effect on the Philippine economy. The effect of AFTA is that (a) at first, the business circle in the Philippines have finally identified by themselves that the high protective system for the Philippine manufacturing sector was finally being destroyed and this process could not be reversed anymore. (b) secondly, I forecasted the effect of AFTA on the Philippine economy focusing on the elect.& electronics industry of the Philippines which was the biggest ezports with ASEAN in value. Based on this analysis, I have forecasted that AFTA will encourage not only the horizontal division of labor and intra-industry trade but also the export of the materials and inputs of machinary-manufactures whithin ASEAN.(4) Aside from the empirical study of the strructural reform of the Philippine manufacturing sector, I have studied the theoretical method for analyzing the liberalization process of the Philippine economy and the effect. I have considered the "political Economy" is the most appropriate method for analyzing them and tried to apply the method creatively to the analysis of teh Philippine economy in detail. Less