Development of the Valuation Models that is Suitable for Each Type of New Businesses with Real Option Approach

新业务的估值比现有业务要困难得多，因为新业务的价值主要取决于未来的投资机会和决策灵活性，而不是现金流的现值。本研究的目的是利用金融期权的估价技术--期权定价模型，对DCF法难以解决的投资机会和灵活性进行估价，在第一年，根据现金流的时间模式、风险特征和决策灵活性程度的不同，对各种新业务进行了分类。此外，从迄今为止研究的各种期权定价模型中，提取出可能对新企业价值评估有贡献的模型。第二年（最后一年），对风险投资实际使用的价值评估技术进行了调查，分析了风险投资如何把握新企业中的真实的期权并将其纳入价值评估。然后，我设计了最适合每种新业务类型的估值模型。我运用这些估值模型计算了风险企业或新企业的价值，并考察了什么样的因素导致理论价值与股票市场上形成的股票价格（或管理者认为合理的价值）之间的差异。

Valuation of a new business is much more difficult than an existing business, because value of a new business depends on future investment opportunities and decision-making flexibility more mainly than present value of cash flow. The purpose of this study was valuation of investment opportunities and flexibility, which is difficult by DCF method, with the option pricing models that is valuation technique for financial option.In the first year, I classed various new businesses in some patterns by differences of time patterns of cash flow, character of a risk, and degree of decision-making flexibility. Furthermore, I extracted models with possibility to contribute to new business valuation from the various option pricing models which had been studied till now.In the second year (the last year), I investigated valuation technique that venture capital really used, and I analyzed how venture capital grasped real options in new businesses and included them in valuation. Then I designed the most adapted valuation model in each new business type. I calculated value of venture companies or new businesses by applying these valuation models, and examined what kind of factors brought differences between the theoretical value and the stock price formed in the stock market (or the value that a manager thought to be reasonable).