Dynamic Estimation for the Potential Maximum Storm Surge Height and Wave Height under the Present and Future Climate Scenarios

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model and a tropical cyclone bogussing scheme developed in this study, the potential maximum storm surge height in Ise Bay, Japan is estimated dynamically under the present and future climate scenarios. In the present climate that the averaged SST is 29.0 degree C, landfalling tropical cyclones have a central pressure of about 930hPa and the worst storm tide is +4.5m MSL at the port of Nagoya, where the maximum recorded storm surge tide is +3.55m MSL generated by Typhoon Vela (1959). In the future climate that the averaged SST is 30.2 degree C, tropical cyclones landfall with a central pressure of about 905hPa and it is found that future-climate tropical cyclones increase the worst storm tide to +6.5m MSL which exceeds the design storm surge level at the port of Nagoya.