Quantitative Study on Business Cycles in a Model of Endogenous Investment Fluctuations

它被称为商业周期，即国家经济在繁荣和衰退中以不规律的周期发展，周期为2.5-5年。标准经济学理论可以解释经济周期现象的广泛范围，只要假设全要素生产率在这些频率上波动。然而，经济学家们还没有就是什么机制驱动生产率波动达成一致。在本研究项目中，我将企业层面的投资引致另一家企业的投资这一概念形式化，并通过企业层面的投资数据对理论假设进行了实证检验。

It is known as business cycles that the national economies develop through booms and recessions in irregular cycles with frequencies of 2. 5-5 years. Standard economic theory can explain the wide range of business cycles phenomena, once it is assumed that the total factor productivity fluctuates in those frequencies. However, economists have not agreed on what mechanism drives the productivity fluctuation. In this research project, I formalize the idea that a firm-level investment induces another firm's investment, and test the theoretical hypotheses by firm-level investment data empirically.