Future estimate of the number of elderly people eligible for Long-termCare Insurance using the principle of multistate life tables and the effect of long-term care service use on progression of care need level.

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The objective of this study was to examine the effects of long-term care services on an increase of care need levels and to make a future estimate of the number of people require long-term care. Cox proportionate hazard model was used to determine whether the use of long-term care insurance service is associated with increased care need level. We estimated the number of elderly people who would need long-term care using the principle of multistate life tables. After adjusting for sex, age, and care need level, the hazard ratio for probability of increased care need level among service users was calculated as 0.75. The estimated total number of people in 2012 who would need long-term care was estimated to101.2% to the actual number of people that received it.