On the potential of total lightning data for nowcasting of thunderstorms and precipitation. Part II: Assessment of the benefit of total lightning using a MOS (Model Output Statistics) approach.

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The University of Hannover operates continuously since July 2003 a SAFIR lightning detection network for total lightning in Northern Germany. It is the first network in Germany which detects also intra-cloud besides the usually observed cloud-toground discharges. The objective of the project is to elaborate the potential of this new data source in Germany for the quantitative short-term forecast of heavy convective rainfall and to include the data then in such an operational nowcasting system. Convective precipitation is responsible for approximately half of the annual precipitation in Germany and also often, especially in summer times, for local flooding, but forecasts of heavy convective rainfall usually are unreliable. With total lightning data we expect to contribute significantly to the further development of a comprehensive nowcasting System for convective rainfall in Germany, as so far, not much experience exists here with the use of lightning data, especially not with total lightning data. First own studies confirm some of many already known advantages of total lightning detection systems for nowcasting purposes. The participation in the various observation campaigns of the Schwerpunktprogramm and the provision of the data to the research community is natural part of the project.