Modelling match and mismatch processes within plankton communities during spring succession

对春季演替期间浮游生物群落内的匹配和失配过程进行建模

• 批准号: 5429814
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Ursula Gaedke
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Arbeitsgruppe Ökologie/Ökosystemmodellierung
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2003-12-31 至 2010-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/5429814?language=en
• 关键词: Modelling; match; mismatch; processes; within

Phytoplankton, bacteria, protozoa, and meso-zooplankton exhibit different temperature sensitivities which implies that higher winter water temperatures due to global warming may alter their relative timing during spring development and the strength of interactions. The predicted increase of strong wind events may affect vertical mixing intensities and thus the plankton components directly and indirectly in group-specific ways. It is hypothesized that this effect is stronger in deep than in shallow water bodies. Using mathematical models, this project will investigate resulting match-mismatch processes in the food webs of two ecosystems which differ in respect to the impact of thermal stratification on spring plankton growth. First, mixing and temperature dependent spring development of plankton in large, deep Lake Constance will be modelled based on long-term time series using a zero-dimensional dynamic simulation model. For early spring, it will focus on the interactions between phytoplankton, micro-zooplankton and copepods. Daphnids and other groups are included when they become more relevant in late spring. Second, the temperature effects on the plankton food web of the shallow Kiel Bight, Baltic Sea, will be analysed using a mass-balanced trophic food web model and a modified version of the dynamic simulation model. This work will be based on a cooperative mesocosm experiment proposed under AQUASHIFT and conducted by four other groups of scientists (Sommer, Riebesell/Engel, Jürgens/Hoppe and Weithoff).

浮游植物、细菌、原生动物和中型浮游动物表现出不同的温度敏感性，这意味着全球变暖导致的冬季水温升高可能会改变它们在春季发育的相对时间和相互作用的强度。预计强风事件的增加可能会影响垂直混合强度，从而以特定群体的方式直接或间接影响浮游生物成分。据推测，这种效应在深水体中比在浅水体中更强。该项目将利用数学模型研究两个生态系统食物网中由此产生的匹配失配过程，这两个生态系统在热分层对春季浮游生物生长的影响方面存在差异。首先，将使用零维动态模拟模型基于长期时间序列对大型深博康斯坦茨浮游生物的混合和温度依赖的春季发育进行建模。早春，它将重点关注浮游植物、微型浮游动物和桡足类动物之间的相互作用。当水蚤和其他类群在春末变得更加重要时，它们也被包括在内。其次，将使用质量平衡营养食物网模型和动态模拟模型的修改版本来分析温度对波罗的海基尔湾浅海浮游生物食物网的影响。这项工作将基于 AQUASHIFT 下提出的合作中宇宙实验，并由其他四个科学家小组（Sommer、Riebesell/Engel、Jürgens/Hoppe 和 Weithoff）进行。