Modelling match and mismatch processes within plankton communities during spring succession

浮游植物、细菌、原生动物和中浮游动物表现出不同的温度敏感性，这表明全球变暖导致的冬季水温升高可能会改变它们在春季发育的相对时间和相互作用的强度。预测的强风事件增加可能直接或间接地影响垂直混合强度，从而影响浮游生物组成。据推测，这种影响在深水中比在浅水中更强烈。利用数学模型，本项目将研究在热分层对春季浮游生物生长的影响方面不同的两个生态系统的食物网中产生的匹配-不匹配过程。首先，基于长期时间序列，利用零维动态模拟模型，对康斯坦斯大深湖浮游生物的混合和温度依赖性春季发育进行建模。在早春，它将重点关注浮游植物、微型浮游动物和桡足类动物之间的相互作用。当水蚤和其他类群在晚春变得更重要时，它们也被包括在内。其次，将使用质量平衡营养食物网模型和改进版的动态模拟模型分析温度对波罗的海基尔浅海浮游生物食物网的影响。这项工作将基于AQUASHIFT提出的合作中宇宙实验，并由其他四个科学家小组（Sommer, Riebesell/Engel, j<s:1> rgens/Hoppe和Weithoff）进行。

Phytoplankton, bacteria, protozoa, and meso-zooplankton exhibit different temperature sensitivities which implies that higher winter water temperatures due to global warming may alter their relative timing during spring development and the strength of interactions. The predicted increase of strong wind events may affect vertical mixing intensities and thus the plankton components directly and indirectly in group-specific ways. It is hypothesized that this effect is stronger in deep than in shallow water bodies. Using mathematical models, this project will investigate resulting match-mismatch processes in the food webs of two ecosystems which differ in respect to the impact of thermal stratification on spring plankton growth. First, mixing and temperature dependent spring development of plankton in large, deep Lake Constance will be modelled based on long-term time series using a zero-dimensional dynamic simulation model. For early spring, it will focus on the interactions between phytoplankton, micro-zooplankton and copepods. Daphnids and other groups are included when they become more relevant in late spring. Second, the temperature effects on the plankton food web of the shallow Kiel Bight, Baltic Sea, will be analysed using a mass-balanced trophic food web model and a modified version of the dynamic simulation model. This work will be based on a cooperative mesocosm experiment proposed under AQUASHIFT and conducted by four other groups of scientists (Sommer, Riebesell/Engel, Jürgens/Hoppe and Weithoff).