Large-scale and local control of severe weather: Towards adaptive ensemble forecasting (ADENS)

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

The development of high impact weather, like heavy precipitation or intense wind gusts, is partially controlled by the synoptic flow, and partially by processes on smaller scales. Likewise, the predictability, or forecast uncertainty, of such events is influenced by all these scales. The relative amount of uncertainty created on each scale will, however, depend on the meteorological situation. In the first phase of the project, a multi-scale ensemble forecasting system is being developed, that represents the various sources of uncertainty through a hierarchy of models with different resolutions and newly developed stochastic physical parameterizations. In the second phase, the multi-scale ensemble will be used to investigate sources of forecast uncertainty through experiments that track the upscale growth of small-scale perturbations and their impact on the balanced, large-scale flow. Variance analysis will be used to quantify the contributions of different scales to ensemble spread. Finally the potential for efficient sampling of uncertainty by adaptively choosing the ensemble configuration as a function of meteorological situation will be assessed.