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Prediction on Rapid shrinkage of summer-snow type glaciers

夏季雪型冰川快速萎缩的预测

基本信息

批准号：
09041103
负责人：
AGETA Yutaka
金额：
$ 9.66万
依托单位：
Nagoya University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A).
财政年份：
1997
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1997 至 1999
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-09041103/
关键词：
summer-snow type glacier glacier variation global warming prediction model development Himalayas Nepal Bhutan ブ-タン

项目摘要

Glacier inventory of east Nepal was compiled from maps, aerophotographs and field research. From analysis of the inventory data, it was clarified that glacier shrinkage was distinct in eastward region, where effect of summer monsoon is stronger. Large glaciers, which are covered with supra-glacial moraine, were observed on Khumbu Glacier in east Nepal and Lirung Glacier in central Nepal. Glacier thickness has been decreasing 1-2 m/year ; the rates have been increasing in recent several years during last 25 years. For small glaciers, which are free from supra-glacial moraine, Glacier AX010 in east Nepal and Rikha Samba Glacier in west Nepal have been monitored since 1970s. It was identified as shrinkage of these glaciers was accelerating and the shrinkage was stronger than other glaciers in the world. Possibility of disappearance of Glacier AX010 in 21c was predicted. To reconstruct the past environmental change, snow/ice cores and tree-ring samples were collected and have been under analyses.In Bhutan Himalayas, the first cooperative study was realized on glacier shrinkage and glacier lakes variations with Royal Government of Bhutan. It was clarified that glacier shrinkage in Bhutan was distincter than that in Nepal, and danger of glacier lake outburst flood was increasing.Observations to develop the model of glacier variation were also carried out for the future prediction. Glacier thickness which is important parameter of glacier dynamics was observed successfully with an ice radar in thick supra-glacial moraine zones on Khumbu Glacier and Lirung Glacier. Effect of the supra-glacial moraine on glacier melt was studied by heat balance measurements ; melting mechanism of large glaciers was well understood and the results have been utilized for the modeling. Moreover, automatic meteorological records were obtained in Khumbu, Hidden Valley and Shorong regions, Nepal and also in Bhutan for the basic analyses on the relation between climate and glacier variations.

尼泊尔东部的冰川清单是根据地图、航空照片和实地研究编制的。通过对清查资料的分析，明确了冰川收缩在东部地区较为明显，这里受夏季风影响较强。在尼泊尔东部的昆布冰川和尼泊尔中部的利隆冰川上观察到覆盖着冰上冰碛的大型冰川。冰川厚度以每年1-2米的速度减少，在过去的25年中，最近几年的速度一直在增加。对于没有冰上碛的小型冰川，尼泊尔东部的冰川AX 010和尼泊尔西部的Rikha桑巴舞冰川自20世纪70年代以来一直受到监测。据确定，这些冰川的萎缩正在加速，而且萎缩程度比世界上其他冰川都要大。预测了AX 010冰川在21 ℃消失的可能性。为了重建过去的环境变化，收集了雪/冰芯和树木年轮样品，并进行了分析。在不丹喜马拉雅山脉，与不丹皇家政府首次合作研究冰川萎缩和冰川湖泊变化。分析表明，不丹的冰川萎缩比尼泊尔明显，冰川湖溃决洪水的危险性增大，并为建立冰川变化模型进行了观测。利用冰雷达在昆布冰川和利隆冰川厚冰碛带成功观测到了冰川厚度这一重要的冰川动力学参数。通过热平衡测量研究了冰上碛对冰川融化的影响，对大型冰川的融化机制有了较好的认识，并将其结果用于模拟。此外，还在尼泊尔的昆布、隐谷和肖龙地区以及不丹获得了自动气象记录，以便对气候与冰川变化之间的关系进行基本分析。