Prediction on Rapid shrinkage of summer-snow type glaciers

尼泊尔东部的冰川清单是根据地图、航空摄影和实地研究编制的。对清查资料的分析表明，东部地区冰川收缩明显，夏季风的影响较大。在尼泊尔东部的昆布冰川和尼泊尔中部的利隆冰川上观察到了覆盖着冰上冰川的大型冰川。冰川厚度一直在以每年1-2米的速度减少；在过去的25年里，这一速度在最近几年一直在增加。对于没有冰上冰川的小型冰川，尼泊尔东部的AX010冰川和尼泊尔西部的Rikha Samba冰川自20世纪70年代以来一直受到监测。它被认为是这些冰川正在加速收缩，而且比世界上其他冰川的收缩更强烈。预测了21世纪AX010冰川消失的可能性。为了恢复过去的环境变化，收集了雪/冰芯和树轮样本并进行了分析。在不丹喜马拉雅山脉，与不丹王国政府实现了关于冰川萎缩和冰川湖泊变化的首次合作研究。结果表明，不丹的冰川萎缩程度明显高于尼泊尔，冰川湖溃决洪水的危险性也在增加，并对建立冰川变化模型进行了观测，为未来的预测提供了依据。利用冰雷达在昆布冰川和利荣冰川厚冰川上冰川带成功地观测了冰川厚度，这是冰川动力学的重要参数。通过热平衡测量研究了冰上冰川对冰川融化的影响，了解了大冰川融化的机理，并将结果用于模拟。此外，在尼泊尔昆布、隐谷和肖荣地区以及不丹也获得了自动气象记录，用于基本分析气候和冰川变化之间的关系。

Glacier inventory of east Nepal was compiled from maps, aerophotographs and field research. From analysis of the inventory data, it was clarified that glacier shrinkage was distinct in eastward region, where effect of summer monsoon is stronger. Large glaciers, which are covered with supra-glacial moraine, were observed on Khumbu Glacier in east Nepal and Lirung Glacier in central Nepal. Glacier thickness has been decreasing 1-2 m/year ; the rates have been increasing in recent several years during last 25 years. For small glaciers, which are free from supra-glacial moraine, Glacier AX010 in east Nepal and Rikha Samba Glacier in west Nepal have been monitored since 1970s. It was identified as shrinkage of these glaciers was accelerating and the shrinkage was stronger than other glaciers in the world. Possibility of disappearance of Glacier AX010 in 21c was predicted. To reconstruct the past environmental change, snow/ice cores and tree-ring samples were collected and have been under analyses.In Bhutan Himalayas, the first cooperative study was realized on glacier shrinkage and glacier lakes variations with Royal Government of Bhutan. It was clarified that glacier shrinkage in Bhutan was distincter than that in Nepal, and danger of glacier lake outburst flood was increasing.Observations to develop the model of glacier variation were also carried out for the future prediction. Glacier thickness which is important parameter of glacier dynamics was observed successfully with an ice radar in thick supra-glacial moraine zones on Khumbu Glacier and Lirung Glacier. Effect of the supra-glacial moraine on glacier melt was studied by heat balance measurements ; melting mechanism of large glaciers was well understood and the results have been utilized for the modeling. Moreover, automatic meteorological records were obtained in Khumbu, Hidden Valley and Shorong regions, Nepal and also in Bhutan for the basic analyses on the relation between climate and glacier variations.