Stochastic Assessment of Terrorist Blast and Fragmentation Casualty Risks

恐怖袭击和碎片伤亡风险的随机评估

• 批准号: DP210101487
• 负责人: Prof Mark Stewart
• 金额: $ 50.46万
• 依托单位: University of Technology Sydney
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP210101487
• 关键词: Stochastic; Assessment; Terrorist; Blast; Fragmentation

The project will develop probabilistic models to predict the likelihood and extent of casualties and other losses from terrorist car bombing threats. Car bombs comprise a large quantity of explosives, and produce primary fragments such as wheels, engine block, parts of door panels and other shrapnel that pose a serious safety hazard to people exposed in a street or other mass gatherings. An improved understanding of safety risks will assist in setting safe evacuation distances. A quantitative assessment of terrorism risks will also allow the effectiveness of security measures to be assessed to provide cost-effective levels of protection that are acceptable to society.

该项目将开发概率模型，以预测恐怖分子汽车爆炸威胁造成的伤亡和其他损失的可能性和程度。汽车炸弹由大量炸药组成，产生的主要碎片如车轮、发动机缸体、门板部件和其他弹片，对暴露在街上或其他群众集会场所的人构成严重的安全危险。更好地了解安全风险将有助于确定安全疏散距离。对恐怖主义风险的定量评估还将有助于评估安全措施的效力，以提供社会可接受的具有成本效益的保护。