Stochastic Assessment of Terrorist Blast and Fragmentation Casualty Risks

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The project will develop probabilistic models to predict the likelihood and extent of casualties and other losses from terrorist car bombing threats. Car bombs comprise a large quantity of explosives, and produce primary fragments such as wheels, engine block, parts of door panels and other shrapnel that pose a serious safety hazard to people exposed in a street or other mass gatherings. An improved understanding of safety risks will assist in setting safe evacuation distances. A quantitative assessment of terrorism risks will also allow the effectiveness of security measures to be assessed to provide cost-effective levels of protection that are acceptable to society.