Risk-Based Decision-Making for Terrorism and Infrastructure Security

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The project intends to develop stochastic models to predict the likelihood and extent of damages, casualties and other losses from terrorist and military threats. Terrorism, security and defence policy-makers need robust probabilistic risk assessments to prioritise or optimise the protection of buildings and aviation infrastructure, as well as iconic structures and mass gatherings. A key focus of the project is malevolent and accidental explosive blast loadings on civilian and hardened infrastructure. A quantitative assessment of security risks and risk acceptance criteria would allow the effectiveness of security measures to be assessed to provide cost-effective levels of protection that is acceptable to society.