Framework for Behavioral Risk Models of Alcohol Problems

摘要 我们建议使用基于代理的建模方法来阐明酒精相关的特定机制， 这是一个综合性的框架，旨在解决社区一级的各种问题，并为在社区一级制定全面的预防干预措施提供框架。 基于主体的模型是一种工具，用于评估支持酒精问题的特定社会机制对健康的影响， 饮酒者在其环境中移动的框架内的社区设置（例如，通勤回家或 学校）并以生态现实的方式相互作用及其环境（例如，和他们一起吃晚饭 家庭在家里）。这种建模过程要求对社会的理论陈述有很高的精确度， 过程，并使这些过程明确，我们可以创造性地干预，以减少问题， 科学解释的障碍。在本中心组件中，我们将使用重建流行病学的框架 动态（FRED）平台，一个基于代理的模型，具有现实的，开放访问的基于人口普查的合成人群， 捕捉美国人口的人口和地理异质性，直到人口普查区 水平，并允许代理与物理和社会环境共同进化。我们将：（1）应用行为风险模型 框架内的FRED，以帮助澄清特定的社会生态机制，病因学的基础， 加州社区中与酒精有关的问题;以及（2）制定一套精选的方案来改变社会生态 与饮酒环境相关的机制，并使用FRED平台评估其对酒精相关问题的影响。 我们将扩展FRED的能力，包括独特的代理环境动态典型的行为风险模型 与酒精使用、酒精使用障碍和相关问题有关。一个仿真平台必须有一套核心的 能力，以承担这些行为风险模型的发展。其中包括建模能力 个体异质性、异质性代理交互和环境异质性，所有这些都内置于 Fred.我们将构建一组模型，准确描述饮酒代理人，饮酒者运动，饮酒 环境，以及特定环境中的特定风险。一旦模型建立起来， 一个元件（例如，将社区中的酒吧数量增加10%），并衡量它如何影响我们的结果， 兴趣我们将根据当前和先前的中心资助，将这种建模方法应用于至少五种问题 研究：（a）父母虐待和忽视子女;（B）过早开始饮酒和青少年饮酒问题 （c）与美国-墨西哥边境酒精过度供应有关的健康影响（组成部分4）;（d） 酗酒、酗酒和与家庭外饮酒有关的问题（组成部分5）;以及（e）社会影响 颁布法令禁止未成年人酗酒BRM允许将饮酒剂和行为与 饮酒环境-设计和实施预防和减少饮酒的有效战略的重要步骤 社区系统内的问题。它们明确了我们可以创造性地干预的过程， 减少问题。

ABSTRACT We propose to use an agent-based modeling approach to elucidate specific mechanisms underlying alcohol-related problems and provide a framework for developing comprehensive preventive interventions at the community level. Agent-based models are a tool to assess the health impacts of specific social mechanisms that support alcohol problems in community settings within a framework in which drinkers move through their environments (e.g., commute to home or school) and interact with each other and their environments in ecologically realistic ways (e.g., eat dinner with their families at home). This modeling process demands a high level of precision with regard to theoretical statements of social processes and makes explicit those processes in which we might creatively intervene to reduce problems, setting a high bar for scientific explanation. In this Center component, we will use the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiologic Dynamics (FRED) platform, an agent-based model with realistic, open-access Census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population of the United States down to the Census Block level and allows agents to co-evolve with physical and social environments. We will: (1) Apply a behavioral risk model framework within FRED in order to help clarify specific social ecological mechanisms that underlie the etiology of alcohol-related problems in California communities; and (2) Develop a select set of scenarios to alter social ecological mechanisms related to drinking contexts and assess their effects on alcohol-related problems using the FRED platform. We will extend FRED’s capacities to include unique agent-environment dynamics typical of behavioral risk models related to alcohol use, alcohol use disorders, and related problems. A simulation platform must have a core set of capabilities in order to undertake the development of these behavioral risk models. These include the ability to model individual heterogeneities, heterogeneous agent interactions, and environmental heterogeneity, all of which are built into FRED. We will construct a set of models that accurately describe drinking agents, drinker movements, drinking environments, and specific risks within specific environments. Once the models have been constructed, we will change one element (e.g., increase the number of bars in a community by 10%) and measure how it impacts our outcomes of interest. We will apply this modeling approach to at least five kinds of problems based on current and prior Center Grant research: (a) Parents’ abuse and neglect of their children; (b) Early initiation of alcohol use and youth drinking problems (Component #3); (c) Health impacts related to hyper-availability of alcohol at the US-Mexico border (Component #4); (d) AUDs, heavy drinking and problems related to drinking outside the home (Component #5); and (e) The impact of social host ordinances on underage heavy drinking. BRMs allow for the integration of drinking agents and behaviors with drinking contexts—an essential step in designing and implementing effective strategies to prevent and reduce drinking problems within community systems. They make explicit those processes in which we might creatively intervene to reduce problems.