Improving Sub-national Population Forecasts

改进次国家人口预测

• 批准号: DP150103343
• 负责人: Dr Thomas Wilson
• 金额: $ 20.25万
• 依托单位: Charles Darwin University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2015-08-31 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP150103343
• 关键词: Improving; Sub; national; Population; Forecasts

The aim of this project is to make significant advances in two related areas of regional, council area and local population forecasting, namely improving accuracy, and providing an indication of forecast uncertainty. Population forecasts often turn out to be far more inaccurate than users realise and fail to come with any information about reliability. Every year forecasts inform a wide variety of planning and policy development activities and influence investment decisions worth billions of dollars. In order to increase the value of forecasts to users, this project aims to combine methods from a range of disciplines to devise more accurate ways of forecasting populations, and provide accompanying information on their likely error.

该项目的目的是在区域、理事会地区和地方人口预测的两个相关领域取得重大进展，即提高准确性和提供预测不确定性的指标。人口预测结果往往比用户意识到的要不准确得多，而且无法提供任何有关可靠性的信息。每年的预测为各种规划和政策制定活动提供信息，并影响价值数十亿美元的投资决策。为了增加预测对用户的价值，该项目旨在将一系列学科的方法联合收割机结合起来，设计更准确的人口预测方法，并提供关于其可能误差的相关信息。