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DECISION FIELD THEORY FOR DECISION TREES

决策树的决策场理论

基本信息

批准号：
2675475
负责人：
JEROME R BUSEMEYER
金额：
$ 10.48万
依托单位：
TRUSTEES OF INDIANA UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
1996
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1996-07-01 至 2000-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2675475
关键词：
behavioral /social science research tag choice clinical research decision making human subject information theory model design /development psychological models psychological tests

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (Adapted from the Applicant's Abstract): Most real life decisions involve multiple-stages, that is a sequence of actions and events over time. There is a well developed theory of decision making, called dynamic programming, that is used to prescribe the optimal way to make multiple-stage decisions. This theory is based on three fundamental principles: Dynamic consistency, consequentialism, and substitutability. However, most of the past experimental research investigating the fundamental principles of decision making has been based on single-stage decisions. Thus, the empirical validity of the three fundamental principles of dynamic programming remain untested, and there is a need for fundamental research on multiple-stage decisions. Dynamic programming theory is an optimal theory that is not based on psychological principles. An alternative psychological theory of decision making, called decision field theory, has important implications for multiple-stage decisions. Specifically, dynamic consistency and substitutability are predicted to be violated by human decision makers under certain conditions specified by the decision field theory. The purpose of the proposed research is to conduct three sets of experiments, where each set is designed to empirically test one of the three principles of dynamic programming. The experiments are designed to produce conditions predicted by decision field theory to lead to violations of two of the three principles.

描述（改编自申请人摘要）：大多数真实的生活决策涉及多个阶段，即一系列行动和事件随着时间有一个成熟的决策理论，称为动态规划，这是用来规定的最佳方式，使多阶段决策。这一理论基于三个基本的原则：动态一致性，结果主义和可替代性。然而，大多数过去的实验研究调查，决策制定的基本原则是基于单阶段决策因此，三个基本原则的经验有效性动态规划的方法还没有经过测试，需要一个基本的多阶段决策研究。动态规划理论是一种不是基于心理学原理的最优理论。一个决策的另类心理学理论，称为决策场理论，对多阶段决策具有重要意义。具体而言，动态一致性和可替代性被预测为违反了人类决策者在某些条件下指定的决策场理论拟议研究的目的是进行三组实验，每组实验都是为了实证检验动态规划的三大原则之一。了实验旨在产生由决策场理论预测的条件，违反了三项原则中的两项。