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US-UK EEID Collab: Risks of Animal and Plant Infectious Diseases Through Trade (RAPID trade)

美英 EEID 合作：贸易带来的动植物传染病风险（RAPID 贸易）

基本信息

批准号：
BB/M008894/1
负责人：
Piran White
金额：
$ 60.57万
依托单位：
University of York
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2014 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=BB%2FM008894%2F1
关键词：
US UK EEID Collab Risks

项目摘要

The dispersal of animal and plant diseases is among the most important side effects of a closely-integrated global economy. Disease impacts on crop yields and livestock puts global food supplies at risk, and the movement of zoonotic pathogens puts human health at risk. Yet trade is also a principal driver of income growth. Striking the right balance in trade decisions between disease risk and opportunities for economic growth is critical to the wellbeing of people in both developed and developing countries. There is therefore an urgent need for developing risk assessment tools for managing animal and plant disease risk at both national and international scales that capture the risks and opportunities in evolving trade patterns, and hence help to identify opportunities for economic growth.The broad aim of the project is to combine state-of-the-art ecological network modelling with multi-scale economic modelling to assess the infectious disease risks posed to animals and plants by world trade networks. We will first examine how factors that inform trade decisions, such as relative prices, taxes and import duties affect risks. We will then investigate the effect of interventions in the market by (a) animal/plant health managers at the local scale, (b) border control agents at the national scale, and (c) multilateral agreements and intergovernmental organizations at the international scale. At the local scale we will examine the effect of controls implemented during outbreaks, and the impact these have on disease risks, e.g. the effect of compensation measures introduced during the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak. At the national scale we will consider the design of trade-based risk assessment, taking into account potential post-importation risks within the importing country, and investigate how imports should be categorized into groups based on potential future risks. At the international scale, we will examine the potential for reducing disease risks through cooperation between national border control agencies.Through partnerships with US APHIS and UK FERA we will access data on selected animal and plant diseases to extend scientific understanding of the nature of anthropogenic animal and plant disease risk. The trade-based risk assessment methods will provide animal and plant health authorities at both the national and international level with the capacity to make improved assessment of the animal and plant health risks associated with imports, and of the effects of trade responses. This may enhance national security by improving disease risk management. It may also enhance national wellbeing by reducing the losses caused by trade interventions. Internationally, we expect to partner with the Food and Agricultural Organization, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC), the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) and the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement. We will develop novel methods for communicating risk to public and private sector organisations and policy-makers, engaging them in the development of a web-based interface that will illustrate how opportunities and risks vary in response to trade interventions. The project will build research infrastructure by strengthening an existing network of US universities concerned with the management of disease risks, and by extending that network to include universities in the UK. We will complement the scientific work within the project with an extensive training programme for PhD students and early career researchers, and over the four years of the project, we expect to train 5 PhD students (supported by research assistantships) and 4 postdoctoral fellows (supported by postdoctoral fellowships) in modeling anthropogenic factors in the spread of infectious diseases, in assessing trade related disease risks, and in risk communication.

动植物疾病的传播是全球经济紧密一体化最重要的副作用之一。疾病对作物产量和牲畜的影响使全球粮食供应面临风险，人畜共患病病原体的移动使人类健康面临风险。然而，贸易也是收入增长的主要驱动力。在贸易决策中，在疾病风险和经济增长机会之间取得适当平衡，对发达国家和发展中国家人民的福祉至关重要。因此，迫切需要开发风险评估工具，在国家和国际两级管理动植物疾病风险，掌握不断变化的贸易模式中的风险和机会，该项目的主要目标是将联合收割机最先进的生态网络模型与多个规模经济模型，以评估世界贸易网络对动植物造成的传染病风险。我们将首先研究影响贸易决策的因素，如相对价格、税收和进口关税如何影响风险。然后，我们将调查（a）地方规模的动植物健康管理人员，（B）国家规模的边境管制人员，以及（c）国际规模的多边协议和政府间组织对市场的干预效果。在地方范围内，我们将研究疫情期间实施的控制措施的效果，以及这些措施对疾病风险的影响，例如2001年英国口蹄疫疫情期间采取的补偿措施的效果。在国家一级，我们将考虑设计基于贸易的风险评估，同时考虑进口国内部潜在的进口后风险，并调查如何根据潜在的未来风险将进口产品分类。在国际范围内，我们将研究通过国家边境管制机构之间的合作来降低疾病风险的潜力。通过与美国APHIS和英国FERA的合作，我们将获得有关选定动植物疾病的数据，以扩大对人为动植物疾病风险性质的科学理解。基于贸易的风险评估方法将使国家和国际一级的动植物卫生当局有能力更好地评估与进口有关的动植物健康风险和贸易对策的影响。这可以通过改善疾病风险管理来加强国家安全。它还可以通过减少贸易干预造成的损失来增进国家福祉。在国际上，我们希望与联合国粮食及农业组织、世界动物卫生组织（OIE）、国际植物保护公约（IPPC）、食品法典委员会（Codex）和卫生与植物检疫协定（Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement）合作。我们将开发新的方法来向公共和私营部门组织和政策制定者传达风险，让他们参与开发基于网络的界面，以说明机会和风险如何在应对贸易干预方面有所不同。该项目将通过加强美国现有的疾病风险管理大学网络，并将该网络扩展到包括英国的大学，来建立研究基础设施。我们将通过为博士生和早期职业研究人员提供广泛的培训计划来补充项目中的科学工作，在项目的四年中，我们预计将培训5名博士生。（由研究助理资助）和4名博士后研究员（由博士后奖学金支持）在传染病传播的人为因素建模，在评估与贸易有关的疾病风险，在风险沟通中。