Coastal Ecosystem Recovery Financing for the Future (CERFF): developing insurance products to enhance response and recovery from tropical cyclones

沿海生态系统，如珊瑚礁、红树林和海草床，可提供抵御热带气旋的保护。它们还提供其他好处，如渔业和旅游业。然而，极端的风暴潮可能会破坏这些生态系统。这降低了它们保护沿海社区免受可能造成死亡和财产破坏的风暴的能力，以及它们在人类福祉方面发挥多功能作用的能力，例如通过渔业提供食物或控制侵蚀。重要的是要管理好这些生态系统，并在它们受到破坏时帮助它们恢复，这样沿海社区才能从极端事件中迅速恢复。积极恢复这些生态系统的财政投资是可行的，而且在小范围内可以具有成本效益。当大片栖息地遭到破坏时，留出生态系统区域作为保护区可能是一种更具成本效益的方法，但依赖生态系统谋生的人，如渔民，需要为短期收入的损失获得经济补偿。这些生态系统的保险可以提供一种解决办法，以便立即提供资金，无论是用于恢复还是作为对渔民的补偿。这种保险产品的提供将使珊瑚礁或海草床在极端风暴潮后得以恢复，以恢复其保护和与生计有关的功能。在开发保险产品以保护生态系统等公共资产及其服务方面的工作相对较少，这留下了很大的保护缺口。开发有效的基于生态系统的保险产品需要对沿海生态系统在不同情况下减少风暴潮的风险和损害的程度，以及这一程度如何随潜在的混杂因素而变化有一个量化的了解。这些问题包括：(1)关键生境的地理分布；(2)它们的功能能力；(3)它们可能遭受的损害；(4)作为基线的对它们状况的评估；(5)了解这一基线相对于海洋酸化、污染或过度捕捞等其他压力因素可能随着时间的变化；(6)了解恢复或再生的时间周期和不确定性。Cerff项目汇集了来自自然科学、社会科学和人文科学的应用科学家和学者，以及一家领先的全球经纪和解决方案公司。Cerff团队将开发一种保险产品，通过基于市场的机制建设减灾能力，该机制可以促进对极端事件的快速反应，并激励备灾行为。它建立在Cefas最近通过英联邦海洋经济方案获得的大量海洋数据的基础上。CEFA基于过程的水动力学模型将与物种分布模型和生态系统服务价值的经济评估相结合，以使预期和避免损害的模型参数化。模型的输出，结合对监测能力的科学理解，将为Willis Towers Watson开发合适的保险产品和相关的参数指数支付触发因素提供信息。约克领导的金融模型，了解了可能影响保险项目需求的社会经济、文化和政治经济因素，将使我们能够评估产品及其激励和投资选择的灵活性和可转移性。这将包括该产品对不同地区的适应性，以及政府和外部捐助者在促进保险渗透以协调公私激励、创造行为变化以及在社会中分担风险预防成本方面的潜在作用。

Coastal ecosystems, such as coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass beds, can provide protection against tropical cyclones. They also provide other benefits such as fisheries and tourism. However, extreme storm surges can damage these ecosystems. This reduces their capacity to protect coastal communities from storms that can cause deaths and damage property, and their ability to play a multi-functional role in human well-being, e.g. providing food through fisheries or controlling erosion. It is important to manage these ecosystems well and assist their recovery when they are damaged, so that coastal communities can recover quickly from extreme events. Financial investment in active restoration of these ecosystems is feasible and can be cost-effective over small areas. When large areas of habitat are damaged, setting aside areas of the ecosystem as reserves may be a more cost-effective approach, but people who depend on the ecosystem for their livelihoods, such as fishermen, need to be compensated financially for loss of short-term earnings. Insurance of these ecosystems could provide a solution to allow for immediate funds to be made available, whether for restoration or as compensation to fishermen. The availability of such an insurance product would enable rehabilitation of the reef or seagrass bed following an extreme storm surge to recover their protective and livelihood-related functions. There has been relatively little work on the development of insurance products to protect public assets such as ecosystems and their services, and this has left a large protection gap. The CERFF project therefore represents an important and timely innovation in the design and development of disaster risk financing instruments.Developing an effective ecosystem-based insurance product requires a quantified understanding of the extent to which coastal ecosystems reduce risk and damages from storm surges in different situations, and how this varies with potentially confounding factors. These include: (i) the geographical distribution of key habitats; (ii) their functional capacity; (iii) the damage they can suffer; (iv) an assessment of their condition as a baseline; (v) an understanding of how this baseline may change over time in relation to other stressors such as ocean acidification, pollution or overfishing; and (vi) an understanding of the time period and uncertainties around restoration or regeneration. The CERFF project brings together applied scientists and academics from natural and social sciences and the humanities, with a leading global broking and solutions company. The CERFF team will develop an insurance product to build disaster mitigation capacity through a market-based mechanism that can facilitate rapid responses in relation to extreme events and also incentivise preparedness behaviour. It builds on extensive marine data that Cefas has recently acquired through the Commonwealth Marine Economies programme. Process-based hydrodynamic modelling at Cefas will be combined with species distribution modelling and economic assessment of ecosystem service values to parameterise models of expected and avoided damages. The outputs of the models, combined with scientific understanding of monitoring capability, will inform the development by Willis Towers Watson of a suitable insurance product and associated parametric index trigger for payment. Financial modelling led by York, informed by an understanding of the socio-economic, cultural and political economic factors potentially affecting demand for the insurance project, will allow us to evaluate the flexibility and transferability of the product and its incentive and investment options. This will include adaptability of the product to different locations, and the potential role of the government and external donors in promoting insurance penetration to align private-public incentives, create behavioural changes, and spread the costs of risk prevention within society.