TEMPERATURE AND AIR POLLUTION EFFECTS ON HUMAN MORTALITY

温度和空气污染对人类死亡率的影响

• 批准号: 3253996
• 负责人: George Douglas Thurston
• 金额: $ 18.66万
• 依托单位: NEW YORK UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-06-06 至 1995-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3253996
• 关键词: United States; air pollution; atmosphere /weather; environmental health; environmental stressor; epidemiology; human mortality; human subject; longitudinal human study; pollutant interaction; statistics /biometry; temperature

This research will quantitatively evaluate the relationships among daily mortality, temperature, and air pollution in the U.S. during 1980-1989. The first phase will be devoted to the acquisition, access, aggregation, quality assurance, and descriptive analyses of the voluminous mortality, weather, and pollution data to be evaluated in this work. City-specific exploratory, frequency domain, and time series regression analyses will then be performed on a select subset of U.S. cities, followed by a more focused analysis of the 40 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Finally, the results of these multiple city analyses will be integrated using meta- analysis methods in order to derive robust assessments of the respective influences of temperature and air pollution on U.S. mortality.This proposed research addresses several key research needs in the epidemiologic assessment of the human health consequences of these environmental factors: the high quality and comprehensiveness of the data to be employed in this research will greatly improve the generalizability of the results versus those of past studies; this analysis will apply advanced time series statistical procedures in order to appropriately address the autocorrelations and crosscorrelations present in such serial data; more biologically plausible specifications of temperature effects will be employed, and; this analysis, encompassing nearly half the U.S. population over 10 years, will provide the first large-scale time series assessment of the effects of ambient air pollution and temperature on U.S. mortality. As such, this research proposal represents an important effort to advance both the epidemiologic methods and scientific knowledge available for the assessment of the human health consequences of these environmental stresses. These advances are of critical importance, given our society's concerns about present-day pollution and about possible future health impacts of global warming.

这项研究将定量评估每日的关系 1980年至1989年，美国的死亡率，温度和空气污染。 第一阶段将专门用于收购，访问，聚合， 质量保证和对大量死亡率的描述性分析， 在这项工作中要评估的天气和污染数据。 特定于城市 探索性，频域和时间序列回归分析将 然后在美国城市的精选子集上进行，然后进行更多 对40个美国大都市地区的重点分析。 最后， 这些多个城市分析的结果将使用元集成 分析方法是为了得出相应的可靠评估 温度和空气污染对美国死亡率的影响。 研究解决了流行病学的几个关键研究需求 评估这些环境因素的人类健康后果： 在此使用的数据的高质量和全面性 研究将大大提高结果的普遍性与 过去的研究；该分析将应用高级时间序列 统计程序以适当地解决 此类序列数据中存在的自相关和互相关；更多的 温度影响的生物学上合理的规格将是 雇用，并且；这种分析，占美国人口的一半 10年来，将提供第一个大规模时间序列评估 环境空气污染和温度对美国死亡率的影响。 作为 这样的研究提案代表了促进两者的重要努力 可用于的流行病学方法和科学知识可用于 评估这些环境的人类健康后果 压力。 考虑到我们社会的，这些进步至关重要 担心当今污染以及可能的未来健康 全球变暖的影响。