A Risk-Based Fire and Rescue Management System

英国的火灾每年造成约800人死亡，造成15000人非致命伤害。在过去的60年里，英国对紧急灭火反应(即火灾掩护)的规定一直基于建筑环境的密度。这些安排有效地减少了公共场所的火灾事件，结果是，目前的系统有一种趋势，即在市中心提供过多的防火掩护，而有证据表明，由于目前75%的火灾死亡发生在家庭住宅中，郊区住宅区的防火保护不足。在这种背景下，有必要开发基于风险的资产管理系统，以合理配置消防救援资源，改善基于生命、财产和环境风险的运营。以往的研究表明，一些不确定性推理/处理理论已被用于火灾风险评估和管理(基于风险的决策)。详细的文献审查表明，在消防和救援服务中缺乏一个全面的基于风险的资产管理框架和适当的辅助工具。考虑到火灾和救援行动的独特性质，其他领域的现有方法可能不会直接用于本研究所调查的火灾和救援活动的基于风险的资产管理。为了满足这些确定的研究需求，本项目将提出一个基于风险的资产管理框架，并开发一套辅助工具，以有效地部署现有资源，并改进/优化检查、灭火和救援策略。本研究将首先与行业合作伙伴密切合作，进行数据收集和建模。将研究消防和救援行动的流程，以及消防和救援服务的特点、所使用的设备类型和目前采取的策略。成本效益也将从消防和救援行动战略的角度进行调查。将提出一个通用的基于风险的框架，该框架能够适应多种标准的建模，并有一个包含通用系统/业务模型的实时数据库。将制定以风险为基础的框架，以建立在消防和救援行业采用有效运营战略的指导方针。该框架将能够根据反应时间、业务成本和风险水平等各种标准处理与每项业务战略有关的风险。将使用危险识别、风险估计、风险控制备选方案的确定、成本效益分析和决策的正式评估程序来制定这一基于风险的框架。为实施基于风险的资产管理框架而开发的支持模型包括主观风险评估工具、多属性决策工具、基于风险的消防安全系统检查/维护规划工具、基于风险的多目标优化工具和海上救援模拟器模型。将使用案例研究来演示拟议的框架和相关的辅助工具，并评估其适用性和有效性。详细的案例研究将包括消防车和其他资源在工业合作伙伴中的部署建模、默西河的海上救援行动和消防安全系统的检查/维护计划。将开发一个原型软件包，其目的是将建模和调查工作转变为互动风险建模和决策的平台。在整个项目中，将向公众推广火灾风险意识。

Fires in the UK kill about 800 people and cause non-fatal injures to 15,000 every year. For the past 60 years provision for emergency fire-fighting response (i.e. fire cover) in the UK has been based on the density of the built environment. These arrangements have been effective in reducing the incidents of fire in public places, with the result that there is now a tendency for the present system to over-provide fire cover in city centres, whilst there is evidence of under-provision in residential suburban areas, given that 75% of fire deaths currently occur in domestic dwellings. Against this background, it is necessary to develop a risk-based asset management system to reallocate rationally fire and rescue resources and to improve the operations based on risks to life, property and the environment. Previous studies indicate that some uncertainty inference/treatment theories have been used to facilitate fire risk assessment and management (risk-based decision-making). The detailed literature review indicates that there is a lack of a holistic risk-based asset management framework and appropriate supporting tools for use in the fire and rescue services. The available methods in other domains may not be directly tailored for use in risk-based asset management of fire and rescue activities investigated in this research, taking into account the unique nature of fire and rescue operations. To address such identified research needs, in this project, a risk-based asset management framework will be proposed and a set of supporting tools developed in order to deploy effectively available resources, and to improve/optimise inspection, fire-fighting and rescue strategies.This research will first conduct data collection and modelling in close collaboration with the industrial collaborator. Fire and rescue operational processes will be studied together with the characteristics of the fire and rescue services, the type of equipment used and the current strategies adopted. The cost benefit will also be investigated in terms of fire and rescue operational strategies. A generic risk-based framework will be proposed capable of accommodating the modelling of multiple criteria and also have a live database containing models of generic systems/operations. The risk-based framework will be developed to establish guidelines for adopting effective operational strategies in the fire and rescue industry. The framework will be capable of dealing with the risk associated with each operational strategy in terms of various criteria such as response time, operational cost and the level of risk. A formal assessment process of hazard identification, risk estimation, identification of risk control options, cost benefit analysis and decision-making will be used to develop this risk-based framework. The supporting models to be developed for the implementation of the risk-based asset management framework include a subjective risk estimation tool, a multiple attribute decision-making tool, a planning tool for risk-based inspection/maintenance of fire safety systems, a risk-based multi-objective optimisation tool and a marine rescue simulator model. Case studies will be used to demonstrate the proposed framework and the associated supporting tools, and to assess their applicability and effectiveness. The detailed case studies will include the modelling of the deployment of fire engines and the other resources in the industrial collaborator, marine rescue operations in River Mersey and inspection/maintenance scheme of fire safety systems. A prototype software package will be developed, which aims to transform the modelling and investigation work into a platform for interactive risk modelling and decision-making. The awareness of fire risks to the public will be promoted throughout the project.