UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC): PROGRAMME GRANT: Long term dynamics of interdependent infrastructure systems

英国和全球发达经济体的国家基础设施（NI）系统（能源，交通，水，废物和ICT）面临着严峻的挑战。2009年科学和技术理事会关于联合王国国家机构的报告指出了国家机构的重大脆弱性、能力限制和一些接近使用寿命的组成部分。它还强调了英国基础设施提供安排的严重分散。迫切需要减少基础设施的碳排放，以应对未来人口、社会和生活方式的变化，并建立抵御气候变化日益加剧的影响的能力。如果要有效地进行这一NI转型过程，同时最大限度地减少相关风险，则需要采用长期的跨部门方法来理解NI在一系列可能的未来中的表现。“系统的系统”分析，必须形成这样一个战略方法的基础还不存在-这个跨学科的研究计划将提供它。英国基础设施转型研究联盟的目的是开发和展示新一代的系统仿真模型和工具，为分析，规划和设计的NI提供信息。该研究将涉及全国范围内的能源、运输、水、废物和信通技术系统，开发分析其绩效、风险和相互依存关系的新方法。它将提供一个虚拟的环境，我们将测试在NI的长期投资策略，并了解替代战略如何执行方面的政策限制，如供应的可靠性和安全性，成本，碳排放，以及对人口和气候变化的适应性。在不确定的未来，如何平衡基础设施的能力和需求？我们将在广泛的技术，社会经济和气候未来下，以兼容的方式开发NI系统的能力，需求和相互依赖性建模方法。因此，我们将提供所需的工具，以确定可持续平衡能力和需求的强有力战略。基础设施故障的风险是什么？我们如何调整NI以使其更具弹性？我们将通过建立NI的网络模型和分析失败对人和经济的后果来分析相互依赖的基础设施失败的风险。关于主要脆弱性和风险的信息将用于确定调整基础设施系统以减少未来风险的方法。基础设施系统如何发展并与社会和经济相互作用？从理想化的模拟开始，逐步扩大到全国范围，我们将开发基础设施、社会和经济长期发展的新模型。我们将使用模拟模型来展示基础设施供应的替代长期期货以及如何实现这些期货。从长远来看，联合王国综合提供国家机构的战略应该是什么？我们将与政府和行业中的一批出色的项目合作伙伴合作，利用我们的新方法为英国的NI开发和测试替代战略，为向可持续发展过渡建立一个基于证据的案例。我们将分析必要的治理安排，以确保这一过渡是在practices.A计划补助金实现提供了灵活的工作机会，与政府和行业的主要合作伙伴，以解决在五年内持续的方式国家重要性的研究挑战。我们的目标是，通过开发新一代工具，与我们的政府和行业合作伙伴合作，我们将在英国的NI供应战略分析中实现革命，同时成为一个以新奇，卓越研究和影响力而闻名的国际里程碑计划。

National infrastructure (NI) systems (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) in the UK and in advanced economies globally face serious challenges. The 2009 Council for Science and Technology (CST) report on NI in the UK identified significant vulnerabilities, capacity limitations and a number of NI components nearing the end of their useful life. It also highlighted serious fragmentation in the arrangements for infrastructure provision in the UK. There is an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions from infrastructure, to respond to future demographic, social and lifestyle changes and to build resilience to intensifying impacts of climate change. If this process of transforming NI is to take place efficiently, whilst also minimising the associated risks, it will need to be underpinned by a long-term, cross-sectoral approach to understanding NI performance under a range of possible futures. The 'systems of systems' analysis that must form the basis for such a strategic approach does not yet exist - this inter-disciplinary research programme will provide it.The aim of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium is to develop and demonstrate a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of NI. The research will deal with energy, transport, water, waste and ICT systems at a national scale, developing new methods for analysing their performance, risks and interdependencies. It will provide a virtual environment in which we will test strategies for long term investment in NI and understand how alternative strategies perform with respect to policy constraints such as reliability and security of supply, cost, carbon emissions, and adaptability to demographic and climate change.The research programme is structured around four major challenges:1. How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future? We will develop methods for modelling capacity, demand and interdependence in NI systems in a compatible way under a wide range of technological, socio-economic and climate futures. We will thereby provide the tools needed to identify robust strategies for sustainably balancing capacity and demand.2. What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt NI to make it more resilient?We will analyse the risks of interdependent infrastructure failure by establishing network models of NI and analysing the consequences of failure for people and the economy. Information on key vulnerabilities and risks will be used to identify ways of adapting infrastructure systems to reduce risks in future.3. How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy? Starting with idealised simulations and working up to the national scale, we will develop new models of how infrastructure, society and the economy evolve in the long term. We will use the simulation models to demonstrate alternative long term futures for infrastructure provision and how they might be reached.4. What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision of NI in the long term? Working with a remarkable group of project partners in government and industry, we will use our new methods to develop and test alternative strategies for Britain's NI, building an evidence-based case for a transition to sustainability. We will analyse the governance arrangements necessary to ensure that this transition is realisable in practice.A Programme Grant provides the opportunity to work flexibly with key partners in government and industry to address research challenges of national importance in a sustained way over five years. Our ambition is that through development of a new generation of tools, in concert with our government and industry partners, we will enable a revolution in the strategic analysis of NI provision in the UK, whilst at the same time becoming an international landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.