FoRUM - Flood risk: Building Infrastructure Resilience through better Understanding and Management choices

ForRUM - 洪水风险：通过更好的理解和管理选择来增强基础设施的抵御能力

• 批准号: NE/M008851/1
• 负责人: Jim Hall
• 金额: $ 22.16万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM008851%2F1
• 关键词: FoRUM; Flood; risk; Building; Infrastructure

The past decade has seen significant developments in the approaches to assessing and managing flood risk. Throughout this period major research projects (such as the FREE, Floodsite, FRMRC, iCOASST, RASP) and industry driven innovations (particularly within the insurance sector, water companies and environmental consultants) have all contributed to these advances. As a result of these multiple (but largely independent) strands of innovation the UK has established a pre-eminent position in the science and practice of flood risk analysis and long term infrastructure investment planning. Programmes such as the National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA) and the Long Term Investment Strategy (LTIS) (undertaken by the Environment Agency) have built upon this knowledge and continue to represent leading international practice. LTIS is particularly noteworthy as the first national infrastructure investment strategy that is explicitly based on national flood risk analysis. Although the past decade has been powerful in driving innovations it has, understandably, led to a proliferation of techniques that are difficult for practitioners and researchers to access and build upon. Many users are now confused as to what is best practice, and the credibility of the results. Recent publications that question some of these results have been a legitimate challenge to complex environmental models. It is now timely to confirm, consolidate and disseminate the current state-of-art through concerted knowledge transfer (KT) and provide the platform for future advances and collaboration between business and academia. The concerted knowledge transfer proposed here will provide a significant contribution to: (i) enable stakeholders (both leading consultancies and infrastructure providers) to capitalize on existing risk analysis capabilities to target investments to build resilience; (ii) reinvigorate a wave of co-innovation within system risk analysis and investment planning; (iii) maintain UK's pre-eminence in the fields of natural hazard risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty, and (iv) strengthen the competitive advantage of UK-based consultants internationally.The FoRUM project:1. Transfer knowledge and skills about flood risk analysis - We will consolidate the advances in recent years, including the approaches to the incorporation of infrastructure failure, spatial coherence with storm conditions and the interactions between channel and floodplain dynamics. We will explore the relationship between top-down and bottom-up models and opportunities for the strengths of one to be used to compensate for the weaknesses of the other. In doing so we will highlight recognized limitations and key uncertainties. 2. Transfer knowledge and understanding about investment planning under conditions of future change and regional/local implications - We will consolidate recent advances in investment planning and the approaches adopted at national and regional levels. We will compare and contrast the techniques developed through initiatives such as FRMRC and the Agency sponsored Adaptive Capacity project and long-term Investment studies with those underdevelopment in the Netherlands and within leading corporations (e.g. RAND, World Bank). We will help stakeholders access the latest thinking and techniques to support investment planning and set the approaches being adopted in the UK in the context of wider international practice.3. Promote a better understanding of the credibility of national estimates of risk -Through the use of case studies, we compare and contrast risk estimates provided at national (through the National Flood Risk Assessment) with those provided at a more local levels (through best practice local analysis). This will enable us to explore the credibility of the analysis at different scales and the uncertainties that users should acknowledge.

过去十年，评估和管理洪水风险的方法取得了重大进展。在此期间，主要的研究项目（如FREE， Floodsite， FRMRC， ico助理，RASP）和行业驱动的创新（特别是在保险部门，水务公司和环境顾问）都为这些进步做出了贡献。由于这些多重（但很大程度上是独立的）创新，英国在洪水风险分析和长期基础设施投资规划的科学和实践方面建立了卓越的地位。诸如国家洪水风险评估（NaFRA）和长期投资战略（LTIS）（由环境署承担）等项目建立在这一知识的基础上，并继续代表着领先的国际实践。特别值得注意的是，LTIS是第一个明确基于国家洪水风险分析的国家基础设施投资战略。尽管过去十年在推动创新方面发挥了强大的作用，但可以理解的是，它导致了从业者和研究人员难以获取和建立的技术的激增。许多用户现在对什么是最佳实践以及结果的可信度感到困惑。最近的一些出版物对这些结果提出了质疑，这是对复杂环境模型的合法挑战。通过协调一致的知识转移（KT）来确认、巩固和传播目前的最新技术，并为未来的进步和商界与学术界之间的合作提供平台，现在正是时候。本文提出的协调一致的知识转移将为以下方面做出重大贡献：(i)使利益相关者（包括领先的咨询公司和基础设施提供商）能够利用现有的风险分析能力来确定投资目标，以建立弹性；（ii）在系统风险分析和投资规划领域重振协同创新浪潮；（三）保持英国在不确定条件下自然灾害风险分析和决策领域的领先地位；（四）加强英国咨询公司在国际上的竞争优势。论坛项目：传递有关洪水风险分析的知识和技能-我们将巩固近年来的进展，包括将基础设施故障、风暴条件的空间一致性以及河道和洪泛平原动态之间的相互作用结合起来的方法。我们将探讨自顶向下和自底向上模型之间的关系，以及利用其中一种模型的优点来弥补另一种模型的缺点的机会。在这样做时，我们将强调公认的限制和关键的不确定因素。2. 在未来变化和区域/地方影响的条件下，转移有关投资规划的知识和理解-我们将巩固投资规划方面的最新进展以及在国家和区域一级采用的方法。我们将比较和对比通过FRMRC和机构赞助的适应性能力项目和长期投资研究等倡议开发的技术与荷兰和领先公司（如兰德公司、世界银行）尚未开发的技术。我们将帮助利益相关者获得最新的思想和技术，以支持投资规划，并在更广泛的国际实践背景下制定正在英国采用的方法。促进更好地理解国家风险估计的可信度——通过使用案例研究，我们比较和对比了国家（通过国家洪水风险评估）和地方（通过最佳实践地方分析）提供的风险估计。这将使我们能够探索在不同尺度和用户应该承认的不确定性分析的可信度。

项目成果

Believe it or not? The challenge of validating large scale probabilistic risk models

信不信由你？

• DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/20160711004
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: E3S Web of Conferences
• 作者: Sayers P

'Evolution of Strategic Flood Risk Management in Support of Social Justice, Ecosystem Health, and Resilience'

“战略洪水风险管理的演变支持社会正义、生态系统健康和恢复力”

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Sayers P.

The analysis of future flood risk in the UK using the Future Flood Explorer

使用 Future Flood Explorer 分析英国未来的洪水风险

• DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/20160721005
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: E3S Web of Conferences
• 作者: Sayers P

Climate impacts on flood and coastal erosion infrastructure

气候对洪水和海岸侵蚀基础设施的影响

• DOI: 10.1680/iasma.14.00040
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Infrastructure Asset Management
• 影响因子: 0.7
• 作者: Sayers P