MISTRAL: Multi-scale Infrastructure Systems Analytics

MISTRAL：多规模基础设施系统分析

• 批准号: EP/N017064/1
• 负责人: Jim Hall
• 金额: $ 686.48万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FN017064%2F1
• 关键词: MISTRAL; Multi; scale; Infrastructure; Systems

National infrastructure provides essential services to a modern economy: energy, transport, digital communications, water supply, flood protection, and waste water / solid waste collection, treatment and disposal. The OECD estimates that globally US$53 trillion of infrastructure investment will be needed by 2030. The UK's National Infrastructure Plan set out over £460 billion of investment in the next decade, but is not yet known what effect that investment will have on the quality and reliability of national infrastructure services, the size of the economy, the resilience of society or its impacts upon the environment. Such a gap in knowledge exists because of the sheer complexity of infrastructure networks and their interactions with people and the environment. That means that there is too much guesswork, and too many untested assumptions in the planning, appraisal and design of infrastructure, from European energy networks to local drainage systems. Our vision is for infrastructure decisions to be guided by systems analysis. When this vision is realised, decision makers will have access to, and visualisation of, information that tells them how all infrastructure systems are performing. They will have models that help to pinpoint vulnerabilities and quantify the risks of failure. They will be able to perform 'what-if' analysis of proposed investments and explore the effects of future uncertainties, such as population growth, new technologies and climate change.The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) is a consortium of seven UK universities, led by the University of Oxford, which has developed unique capability in infrastructure systems analysis, modelling and decision making. Thanks to an EPSRC Programme Grant (2011-2015) the ITRC has developed and demonstrated the world's first family of national infrastructure system models (NISMOD) for analysis and long-term planning of interdependent infrastructure systems. The research is already being used by utility companies, engineering consultants, the Institution of Civil Engineers and many parts of the UK government, to analyse risks and inform billions of pounds worth of better infrastructure decisions. Infrastructure UK is now using NISMOD to analyse the National Infrastructure Plan.The aim of MISTRAL is to develop and demonstrate a highly integrated analytics capability to inform strategic infrastructure decision making across scales, from local to global. MISTRAL will thereby radically extend infrastructure systems analysis capability:- Downscale: from ITRC's pioneering representation of national networks to the UK's 25.7 million households and 5.2 million businesses, representing the infrastructure services they demand and the multi-scale networks through which these services are delivered.- Upscale: from the national perspective to incorporate global interconnections via telecommunications, transport and energy networks.- Across-scale: to other national settings outside the UK, where infrastructure needs are greatest and where systems analysis represents a huge business opportunity for UK engineering firms.These research challenges urgently need to be tackled because infrastructure systems are interconnected across scales and prolific technological innovation is now occurring that will exploit, or may threaten, that interconnectedness. MISTRAL will push the frontiers of system research in order to quantify these opportunities and risks, providing the evidence needed to plan, invest in and design modern, sustainable and resilient infrastructure services.Five years ago, proposing theory, methodology and network models that stretched from the household to the globe, and from the UK to different national contexts would not have been credible. Now the opportunity for multi-scale modelling is coming into sight, and ITRC, perhaps uniquely, has the capacity and ambition to take on that challenge in the MISTRAL programme.

国家基础设施为现代经济提供基本服务：能源、运输、数字通信、供水、防洪以及废水/固体废物的收集、处理和处置。经合组织估计，到2030年，全球将需要53万亿美元的基础设施投资。英国的国家基础设施计划列出了未来十年超过4600亿GB的投资，但尚不清楚这些投资将对国家基础设施服务的质量和可靠性、经济规模、社会弹性或对环境的影响产生什么影响。这种知识差距的存在是因为基础设施网络及其与人和环境的互动的绝对复杂性。这意味着，在基础设施的规划、评估和设计中，从欧洲能源网络到当地排水系统，有太多的猜测和太多未经检验的假设。我们的愿景是通过系统分析来指导基础设施决策。当这一愿景实现时，决策者将能够访问并可视化信息，告诉他们所有基础设施系统的运行情况。他们将拥有有助于准确定位漏洞和量化失败风险的模型。他们将能够对拟议的投资进行假设分析，并探索未来不确定性的影响，如人口增长、新技术和气候变化。英国基础设施过渡研究联盟(ITRC)是由牛津大学领导的七所英国大学组成的联盟，牛津大学在基础设施系统分析、建模和决策方面发展了独特的能力。由于EPSRC方案赠款(2011-2015)，ITRC开发并展示了世界上第一个国家基础设施系统模型(NISMOD)，用于分析和长期规划相互依存的基础设施系统。公用事业公司、工程顾问、土木工程师学会和英国政府的许多部门已经在使用这项研究来分析风险，并为价值数十亿英镑的更好的基础设施决策提供信息。英国基础设施目前正在使用NISMOD来分析国家基础设施计划。米斯特拉尔的目标是开发和展示高度集成的分析能力，为从本地到全球的各种规模的战略基础设施决策提供信息。因此，米斯特拉尔将从根本上扩展基础设施系统分析能力：-小规模：从ITRC对国家网络的开创性代表，扩展到英国的2570万个家庭和520万家企业，代表他们所需的基础设施服务以及提供这些服务的多尺度网络。-高端：从国家角度来看，纳入通过电信、运输和能源网络的全球互连。-跨规模：到英国以外的其他国家环境，其中基础设施需求最大，系统分析对英国工程公司来说是一个巨大的商机。这些研究挑战迫切需要解决，因为基础设施系统在不同规模上相互连接，而目前正在发生的多产技术创新将利用或可能威胁这种相互连接。米斯特拉尔将推动系统研究的前沿，以量化这些机会和风险，提供规划、投资和设计现代、可持续和有弹性的基础设施服务所需的证据。五年前，提出从家庭到全球、从英国到不同国家背景的理论、方法和网络模型是不可信的。现在，多尺度建模的机会正在显现，国际热带木材研究中心或许是独一无二的，它有能力和雄心在米斯特拉尔方案中迎接这一挑战。

项目成果

Evidence-based infrastructure: Curacao. National infrastructure systems modelling to support sustainable and resilient infrastructure development

循证基础设施：库拉索。

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Adshead D

Preparedness against mobility disruption by floods

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.191
• 发表时间: 2019-03-01
• 期刊: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
• 影响因子: 9.8
• 作者: Arrighi, C.;Pregnolato, M.;Castelli, F.
• 通讯作者: Castelli, F.

NISMOD-DB++: A next generation spatiotemporal database framework for infrastructure systems analytics and modelling.

NISMOD-DB：用于基础设施系统分析和建模的下一代时空数据库框架。

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Barr S.

Delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals through long-term infrastructure planning

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101975
• 发表时间: 2019-11-01
• 期刊: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Adshead, Daniel;Thacker, Scott;Hall, Jim W.
• 通讯作者: Hall, Jim W.

A next generation spatiotemporal database framework for infrastructure systems analytics and modelling

用于基础设施系统分析和建模的下一代时空数据库框架

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Barr S