Negative Emission Technologies and the food-energy-water-neXus (NETX)

负排放技术和食品-能源-水关系 (NETX)

• 批准号: EP/N030141/1
• 负责人: Anna Harper
• 金额: $ 30万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FN030141%2F1
• 关键词: Negative; Emission; Technologies; food; energy

If CO2 emissions continue to rise, climate change will adversely affect global food and water availability, ecosystems, cities, and coastal communities. While reduction of fossil fuels will be an essential step for reducing atmospheric CO2, Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) can help meet emission targets. During combustion, CO2 can be extracted, transported, and stored in geologic repositories - this is the process of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Combining bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) could result in negative emissions of CO2. BECCS is attractive since it results in a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere while also providing a renewable source of energy. However, BECCS requires a large commitment of land and will have impacts on food and water availability. This work focuses on BECCS and addresses the challenges for planning a global and nationwide distribution of bioenergy crops.The vast majority of IPCC scenarios that remain below 2 degrees C makes use of NET in the 21st century. Although bioenergy crops and BECCS are an essential component of the scenarios (produced by Integrated Assessment Models, or IAMs), the crops in even the most sophisticated IAMs only respond to mean changes in climate. This results in an inconsistency in the modelling framework: the IAMs can assume bioenergy crops are effective at drawing down CO2 and producing energy in a region where actually climate change will reduce their effectiveness. Earth System Models (ESMs) represent the dynamics of the atmosphere, oceans, sea ice, and land surface. They can account for biophysical (i.e. changes to albedo and latent heat fluxes) and biogeochemical (i.e. uptake or release of greenhouse gases) feedbacks due to land use change. They are the only tool available to investigate future impacts of spatial and temporal variability in climate on the food, energy, and water nexus. However, the ESMs used in the last IPCC report only accounted for a generic crop type at best, not differentiating between bioenergy and food crops. Without an explicit representation of bioenergy crops in ESMs, the effects of climate change do not feedback to affect the food, energy, and water resources assumed to be true in the IAMs. There is an urgent need for predicting the productivity of bioenergy crops in a coupled climate simulation, to see the impact of a range of climate change on the productivity, and associated impacts on food crop productivity, energy production, and water availability. In this project, I will include representations of first and second generation bioenergy crops in the UK ESM, and investigate the impacts of climate change on the productivity at the global and regional (for the UK) level. This work will assess the viability of negative emissions of CO2 through bioenergy crops as an effective climate mitigation strategy under a changing climate, and provide data to support decisions that will minimize the impacts of both climate change and climate change mitigation on bioenergy production, food, and water availability. The outcomes of this project will enhance the resilience of the food/water/energy nexus to climate change and climate variability through better planning, and providing socially responsible recommendations for balancing the challenges of reducing climate change with feeding our growing global population.

如果二氧化碳排放量继续上升，气候变化将对全球粮食和水的供应、生态系统、城市和沿海社区产生不利影响。虽然减少化石燃料将是减少大气二氧化碳的重要步骤，但负排放技术（NET）可以帮助实现排放目标。在燃烧过程中，二氧化碳可以被提取、运输和储存在地质储存库中-这就是碳捕获和储存（CCS）的过程。将生物能源与CCS相结合（BECCS）可能导致二氧化碳的负排放。BECCS具有吸引力，因为它导致从大气中净去除CO2，同时还提供可再生能源。然而，BECCS需要大量的土地，并将对粮食和水的供应产生影响。这项工作的重点是BECCS和解决的挑战，规划一个全球和全国性的生物能源作物的分布。绝大多数的IPCC的情景，保持低于2摄氏度，利用NET在21世纪世纪。虽然生物能源作物和BECCS是情景（由综合评估模型（IAM）产生）的重要组成部分，但即使是最复杂的IAM中的作物也只对气候的平均变化做出反应。这导致了建模框架的不一致：综合农业模型可以假设生物能源作物在减少二氧化碳和生产能源方面是有效的，而实际上气候变化将降低其有效性。地球系统模型（ESM）代表了大气、海洋、海冰和陆地表面的动力学。它们可以解释由于土地使用变化而引起的生物物理（即潜热通量和潜热通量的变化）和生物地球化学（即温室气体的吸收或释放）反馈。它们是调查未来气候时空变异对粮食、能源和水关系的影响的唯一工具。然而，IPCC上一份报告中使用的紧急措施最多只能说明一种通用的作物类型，而不能区分生物能源和粮食作物。如果没有明确的代表性的生物能源作物的紧急措施，气候变化的影响不反馈影响粮食，能源和水资源，假设是真实的综合农业措施。迫切需要在耦合气候模拟中预测生物能源作物的生产力，以了解一系列气候变化对生产力的影响，以及对粮食作物生产力，能源生产和水供应的相关影响。在这个项目中，我将包括第一代和第二代生物能源作物在英国ESM的代表，并调查气候变化对全球和区域（英国）水平的生产力的影响。这项工作将评估通过生物能源作物作为气候变化下有效的气候减缓战略的二氧化碳负排放的可行性，并提供数据以支持决策，最大限度地减少气候变化和气候变化减缓对生物能源生产，粮食和水供应的影响。该项目的成果将通过更好的规划，加强粮食/水/能源关系对气候变化和气候多变性的适应能力，并提供对社会负责的建议，以平衡减少气候变化的挑战与养活不断增长的全球人口。

项目成果

Vegetation distribution and terrestrial carbon cycle in a carbon cycle configuration of JULES4.6 with new plant functional types

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018
• 发表时间: 2018-07-13
• 期刊: GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Harper, Anna B.;Wiltshire, Andrew J.;Duran-Rojas, Carolina
• 通讯作者: Duran-Rojas, Carolina

Vegetation distribution and terrestrial carbon cycle in a carbon-cycle configuration of JULES4.6 with new plant functional types

具有新植物功能类型的 JULES4.6 碳循环配置中的植被分布和陆地碳循环

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2017-311
• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Harper A

Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab89c
• 发表时间: 2018-05-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Collins, William J.;Webber, Christopher P.;Powell, Tom
• 通讯作者: Powell, Tom

Improvement of modeling plant responses to low soil moisture in JULESvn4.9 and evaluation against flux tower measurements

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021
• 发表时间: 2020-09
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: A. Harper;Karina E. Williams;Karina E. Williams;P. McGuire;M. Rojas;D. Hemming;D. Hemming;A. Verhoef

Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-24
• 发表时间: 2020-06
• 期刊: Earth System Dynamics
• 影响因子: 7.3
• 作者: G. Hayman;E. Comyn‐Platt;C. Huntingford;A. Harper;Tom Powell;P. Cox;William J. Collins;C. Webber;J. Lowe;S. Sitch;J. House;J. Doelman;D. V. van Vuuren;S. Chadburn;E. Burke;N. Gedney