Is the rate of domestic violence decreasing or increasing? A re-analysis of the British Crime Survey

家庭暴力的比率是上升还是下降？据英国犯罪调查报告，在经历了十多年(1995-2009年)的下降之后，家庭暴力比率似乎已趋于稳定或开始上升。英国犯罪调查在衡量一段时间内家庭暴力方面是世界上最好的调查之一，如果不是最好的话。除了20年来的单一措施外，还对改进的措辞和提问方法进行了试验。然而，不同的数据收集方式显示出不同的结果：一项基于面对面提问的主要调查的结果显示，家庭暴力发生率有所上升，另一项基于自我完成模块的调查也显示情况有所好转，但没有达到统计上的显著水平，可能表明情况稳定了。解决家庭暴力变化率的这种模棱两可的问题对政策制定者具有重要影响。在改善政策环境方面投入了巨大的创造性精力和资源，以减少针对妇女和女孩的基于性别的暴力行为。这一政策目标在政府换届期间一直是一致的。在降低家庭暴力发生率方面取得了非凡的成功。因此，表明家庭暴力发生率正在上升或企稳、而不是继续下降的数据，对政府政策制定者和非政府组织构成了严峻的挑战，对政策和实践都有影响。一些小组的比率是否比其他小组的变化更大？如果能够找出变化速度较大或方向与其他群体不同的分组，则政策反应将有所不同。确定更多易受伤害的亚群可能有助于确定稀缺资源的目标。该项目将通过审查英国犯罪调查的原始数据，调查家庭暴力发生率变化的证据。它将考虑方法上的差异和变化是否是报告的家庭暴力比率差异的根源。它将解决定义问题：统计暴力的不同单位、事件发生率、受害者和普及率是否会有所不同。委员会将审议所报告的暴力类型是否有变化：是更严重还是更频繁；是否包括或不包括伴侣的性侵犯和跟踪对汇总趋势有影响？它将调查一些群体是否发生了变化，而不是其他群体。性别特征正在发生变化吗？在家庭结构以及幸存者是继续与伴侣一起生活还是搬家方面存在差异？经济状况、就业和失业情况是否发生了变化？有没有证据表明，经济衰退等更广泛的经济和社会环境的变化产生了影响？该项目将调查家庭暴力发生率表面上停止下降的情况是否强劲；家庭暴力发生率上升的结论是否比正在企稳的结论更有力；以及某些子群体受到的影响是否比其他群体更大。它将与决策者接触，回应他们的具体关切，并通过已经建立的网络迅速传播调查结果，我们是其中的一部分。

Is the rate of domestic violence going up or down? After over a decade of decline (1995-2009) the rate of domestic violence as reported by the British Crime Survey appears to have stabilised or started to increase. The British Crime Survey is one of the best if not the best surveys in the world in its measurement of domestic violence over time. In addition to a single measure over two decades, there has been experimentation with improved wording and methods of asking questions. However, different ways of collecting the data are showing different results: one finding, based on the main survey, which asks questions face-to-face, is showing an upturn in the rate of domestic violence, the other, based on the self-completion module also shows an upturn but not at a statistically significant level perhaps indicating stabilisation. Resolving this ambiguity in the rate of change in domestic violence has important implications for policy makers. Enormous creative energy and resource has been expended in improving the policy environment so as to reduce gender-based violence against women and girls. This policy goal has been consistent across the change of government. There has been extraordinary success in driving down the rate of domestic violence. So the data suggesting that the rate of domestic violence is either increasing or stabilising rather than continuing to decline is acutely challenging to governmental policy makers and NGOs, with implications for policy and practice. Is the rate for some sub-groups changing more than that for others? Policy responses would be different if sub-groups could be identified where the rate of change was greater or in a different direction to others. Identifying more vulnerable sub-groups might enable the targeting of scarce resources. It would also help the development of a deeper understanding of the causes of the violence, and the potential for further key sites of intervention.The project will investigate the evidence of changes in the rate of domestic violence through an examination of the raw data of the British Crime Survey. It will consider whether methodological differences and changes underlie differences in reported rates of domestic violence. It will address definitional issues: whether the different units in which the violence is counted, producing rates of incidents, victims and prevalance make a difference. It will consider whether there are changes in the types of violence reported: is it more or less severe or frequent; does the inclusion or exclusion of sexual assault and stalking by partners make a difference to the summary trends? It will investigate whether there are changes in some groups rather than others. Is the gender profile changing? Are there differences in household structure and whether survivors stay living with partners or move on? Are there changes in economic position, in employment and unemployment? Is there any evidence that changes in the wider economic and social environment, such as the recession, has made a difference?The project would investigate whether the apparent cessation in the decline in the rate of domestic violence is robust; whether the finding that the rate is increasing is more or less robust than the finding that it is stabilising; and whether some sub-groups are more affected than others. It would engage with policy makers, responding to their specific concerns, and offer rapid dissemination of findings through already established networks of which we are part.