The Impact of the Financial Crisis on UK Company Performance

英国生产率在2008- 2009年经济衰退期间大幅下降，此后恢复缓慢。目前，这一数字仍大大低于危机前趋势的延续。这与英国战后其他衰退的经历形成了鲜明的对比，当时的衰退没有那么剧烈，复苏也更快;这也与美国的经历截然不同，美国的生产率保持得相当好，但总失业率比英国更严重。正如货币政策委员会和预算责任办公室所强调的那样，理解近期生产率疲软的原因对宏观经济政策至关重要。该研究的主要目的是调查英国近期生产率疲软的根本原因，特别是研究银行业危机可能影响英国经济供应方的机制，并重点关注它如何影响公司业绩。这些机制是通过审查个别公司或部门在业绩方面的差异来确定的，这些公司或部门是根据其增长对银行融资的依赖程度来确定的。该研究分析了来自一系列二级数据源的公司和行业层面的数据，突出了与生产率放缓的不同解释相一致的数据模式。本研究主要解决以下问题：1.自金融危机以来，生产率放缓在各行业和英国企业中有多普遍？这与20世纪90年代初的经济衰退有何不同？2.银行业危机对英国公司经历的银行信贷状况有何影响？3.银行信贷条件可能通过哪些机制影响英国公司的业绩，这些影响的程度如何？4.有什么证据表明，英国生产率的疲软与信贷紧缩无关的因素有关，特别是劳动力囤积？研究的主要重点是分析与银行业危机直接相关的生产率疲软的原因。一个可能的机制是，缺乏信贷阻碍了高生产力企业的发展，主要是依赖银行的年轻和小型企业，并为老牌企业提供了一些保护。换句话说，银行业危机可能降低了企业间投入和产出分配的效率。为此，将生产率增长分解为因企业内部的发展而产生的生产率变化和因企业间资源配置效率的变化而产生的生产率变化。如果银行业危机是一个重要的贡献者，英国生产力疲软，而不是经济衰退，那么预期的是，生产力下降应该出现在很大程度上是由于资源分配的效率下降跨firms.The研究开发从现有的数据来源的措施，银行业危机对银行信贷条件的影响经历了不同类型的英国公司。接下来，它采用准实验的方法来衡量紧缩信贷条件对公司业绩的重要性，比较可能容易受到紧缩信贷条件影响的公司与金融危机前后不太可能受到紧缩信贷条件影响的公司的结果。银行业危机本质上为研究信贷紧缩对真实的经济结果的影响提供了一个自然实验。该研究调查了金融危机对生产率、投资、企业生存率和创造就业等公司业绩指标的影响，并分析了企业一级劳动力囤积的程度以及这一现象如何导致最近生产率疲软的情况，尽管这不是主要关注点。

UK productivity fell sharply during the recession of 2008-9, and recovered only sluggishly after that. It currently remains substantially below a continuation of its pre-crisis trend. This contrasts very sharply with the experience of other post-war recessions in the UK when the fall was less sharp and the recovery quicker; it is also very different from experience in the US, where productivity has held up quite well, but where aggregate job loss has been more severe than in the UK. Understanding the reasons for recent productivity weakness is of first order importance to macroeconomic policy, as stressed by both the Monetary Policy Committee and the Office for Budget Responsibility. The main aim of the research is to investigate the underlying causes for recent productivity weakness in the UK, examining in particular the mechanisms by which the banking sector crisis might have affected the supply side of the UK economy, and focusing on how it has affected company performance. These mechanisms are identified by examining differences in the performance of individual firms or sectors according to their reliance on bank finance in order to grow. The research analyses company- and sector-level data from a range of secondary data sources, highlighting patterns in the data consistent with different explanations for the productivity slowdown. The research addresses the following questions:1. How widespread across sectors and UK companies is the productivity slowdown since the financial crisis? How does this differ to the recession of the early 1990s?2. What has been the impact of the banking sector crisis on bank credit conditions experienced by UK companies?3. What are the mechanisms through which bank credit conditions might have affected the performance of UK companies and what are the magnitudes of these effects?4. What is the evidence that UK productivity weakness has been associated with factors unrelated to tight credit conditions; labour hoarding in particular?The main focus of the research is on analysing reasons for productivity weakness directly related to the banking crisis. One possible mechanism is that lack of credit availability has stunted the development of high-productivity, mainly young and small bank dependent firms and provided some protection for older established companies. In other words, the banking crisis may have reduced the efficiency with which inputs and outputs are allocated across firms. To investigate this, productivity growth is decomposed into productivity changes that occur because of developments within individual firms and productivity changes that occur because of changes in the efficiency with which resources are allocated across firms. If the banking crisis was an important contributor to UK productivity weakness, as distinct from recession, then the expectation is that productivity decline should have arisen in large part due to a drop in the efficiency with which resources are allocated across firms.The research develops from existing data sources measures of the impact of the banking sector crisis on bank credit conditions experienced by different types of UK companies. Next it gauges the importance of tight credit conditions on company performance adopting a quasi-experimental approach, comparing outcomes for firms who are likely to be vulnerable to tight credit conditions to outcomes for firms who are less likely to be vulnerable to tight credit conditions before and after the financial crisis. The banking crisis provides in essence a natural experiment for studying the impact of tight credit conditions on real economic outcomes. The research studies the impact of the financial crisis on a number of company performance measures, including productivity, investment, firm survival rates, and job creation.Although not the main focus, the extent of firm-level labour hoarding, and how this may have contributed to recent productivity weakness, is also analysed.