Currency and Fiscal Policy Options for an independent Scotland

本奖学金的目的是激发对苏格兰替代货币和财政安排的一致性进行公开和知情的辩论。这个问题是全面或进一步权力下放是否成功的核心。由于独立很可能是不可逆转的，至少在几年内是这样，一场知情的辩论需要了解主权范围内的所有货币和财政选择，无论它们是否属于公投的一部分。苏格兰未来的货币和财政安排是完全或进一步权力下放能否成功的核心。1707年，英国议会通过了《联合法案》（Acts of union），建立了货币、财政和政治的全面联盟，比其他所有国家之间的货币联盟持续的时间都要长。具有逻辑不一致性的货币联盟总是最终被不可预见的经济冲击所暴露。历史上有很多这样的例子：失败的工会不仅导致经济危机，而且往往导致政治分裂。学术界有责任提出具有完整性的货币和财政安排，并在强调那些不一致的安排时毫无歉意。当前的经济危机表明，不了解金融体系中的风险和不一致的激励机制，可能会破坏政策框架。过去三十年来，世界各地发生的金融危机，尤其是最近的这场全球危机，表明了私营部门的风险如何成为公共部门的负债，因为政府仍然是系统性风险的最终承担者。随着金融部门风险敞口向公共部门的大规模转移，先前关于货币（或货币）政策和财政政策之间划分的工作假设已被暴露为过于简单化。上世纪60年代发展起来的最优货币区的传统方法必须加以扩展，以包括金融部门的风险。只有充分考虑到金融部门的风险，才能判断新的货币和财政安排的完整性。这个奖学金的目的是使这个扩展。银行体系的负债被假定为国家的或有财政风险。这使得央行的金融监管和非货币政策（即银行支持政策）成为辩论的中心。这在货币政策和财政政策之间建立了明确的联系。这些风险是苏格兰的核心问题——苏格兰是一个拥有庞大金融业的小型开放经济体。在这场辩论中，如果不能同时考虑货币、财政和金融安排，将是一个严重的疏漏。该奖学金将从宏观经济和宏观金融的角度研究苏格兰的货币和财政政策选择。宏观经济视角着眼于独立后的苏格兰经济结构（更多以石油为基础，没有巴奈特财政转移）和财政可持续性。该奖学金的核心是建立苏格兰的第一个大规模全球计量经济模型。这将是NIESR的国家研究所全球经济模型（NiGEM）的扩展，NiGEM有超过40个模型订户，主要来自政策界，包括英格兰银行、FSA、欧洲央行、经合组织和国际货币基金组织。宏观金融视角将把重点放在作为国家或有负债的苏格兰银行体系上。关键问题是，为金融部门提供支持的制度安排（如最后贷款人和存款保险）的选择是什么，以及谁将成为监管机构。虽然可以将这些业务外包，但这将涉及财政成本并引发道德风险问题。

SUMMARYThe objective of this Fellowship is to stimulate an open and informed debate on the coherence of alternative currency and fiscal arrangements for Scotland. This issue is at the heart of whether full or further devolution will be successful. Since independence is likely to be irreversible, at least for several years, an informed debate requires understanding all of the currency and fiscal options across a spectrum of sovereignty rights, whether or not they are part of a referendum. Scotland's future currency and fiscal arrangement is at the heart of whether full or further devolution will be successful. The Parliament of Great Britain with full currency, fiscal and political union began with the Acts of Union in 1707 and has endured longer that all other monetary unions between nations. Monetary unions which have logical inconsistencies have always been eventually exposed by an unforeseeable economic shock. History is replete with instances in which failed unions lead not only to economic crises but often political division. The academic community has a responsibility to propose currency and fiscal arrangements which have integrity and be unapologetic in highlighting those which are inconsistent.The current economic crisis shows how failure to understand risks and misaligned incentives in the financial system can undermine policy frameworks. The number of financial crises around the world over the last three decades, and in particular the recent global crisis, shows how private sector risks can become public sector liabilities as the state remains the ultimate insurer of systemic risk. With the large transfer of financial sector exposures to the public sector the previous working assumption of a division between currency (or monetary) policy and fiscal policy has become exposed as an over-simplification.The traditional approach of an optimal currency area developed in the 1960s must be extended to include financial sector risks. Only when financial sector risks are fully incorporated can the integrity of the new currency and fiscal arrangements be judged. This Fellowship aims to make this extension. The liabilities of the banking system are assumed to be contingent fiscal risks of the state. This brings financial supervision and non-monetary policies (i.e. bank support policies) by the central bank into the centre of the debate. This creates a clear link between monetary and fiscal policies. These risks are central to Scotland - a small and open economy with a large financial sector. Failure to consider currency, fiscal and financial arrangements together would be a serious omission in this debate.This Fellowship will examine Scotland's currency and fiscal policy options from a joint macro-economic and macro-financial perspective. The macro-economic perspective looks at the structure of an independent Scottish economy (more oil-based and without the Barnett fiscal transfer) and fiscal sustainability. The core of the Fellowship is building the first large-scale global econometric model of Scotland. This will be an extension of NIESR's National Institute Global Economic Model (NiGEM) which has over 40 model subscribers, mainly in the policy community, including the Bank of England, the FSA, the ECB, the OECD, the IMF. The macro-financial perspective will focus on the Scottish banking system as a state contingent liability. The key issues are what are the choices of institutional arrangements for providing financial sector support (such as lender of last resort and deposit insurance) and who will be the regulator. While it is possible to contract-out these operations, this will involve a fiscal cost and raise moral hazard issues.