Centre for Population Change

方案协调会二期的科学方案以方案协调会一期取得的成就和吸取的教训为基础，反映了连续性和变化，继续以生育和家庭形成以及移徙为重点，但纳入了流动性的新方面，并探讨了寿命延长和生命过程变化的影响；以及一个新的跨领域主题，侧重于人口变化如何影响代际关系和交流模式，并受其影响。我们还计划继续研究人口变化建模的创新方法和新方法。我们在CPC-II的研究将围绕以下五个主题领域进行：1。生育和家庭变化2。寿命的延长和生命历程的改变。新的流动性和迁移。理解代际关系和交流。综合人口估计和预测这些主题领域明确认识到人口变化的各个组成部分彼此之间以及与经济和社会进程之间的动态相互作用。前三个主题反映了人口变化的三个主要组成部分：生育率、死亡率和移徙，并以第一届方案协调会的科学进步和成就为基础，扩大了研究议程，以处理新的和正在出现的领域。预期寿命的延长是20世纪最伟大的成就之一。CPC-II旨在调查寿命延长和老年人数量增加对社会和经济的影响。我们还探讨了生命历程的变化形态，探索了人口和社会经济事件的时间、顺序和持续时间是如何相互作用以重构生命历程的，这在群体之间和群体内部是如何变化的，以及这些变化对生命历程敏感的社会政策设计的影响。在移徙方面，方案协调会第一届会议的重点是国家和跨国移徙所涉人口和社会经济问题，包括对劳工和住房市场的影响。在CPC-II中，我们将研究“新的流动性”，“新的”既包括运动的驱动因素，也包括不断变化的移民背景。我们将在以下领域提供原创见解：经济衰退对迁移轨迹的迁移影响，即就地适应、返回或继续迁移，以及收入预期对迁移持续时间的影响。了解诸如人口老龄化、家庭形成和解体的变化以及（空间、经济和社会）流动性增加等趋势如何既受到国际关系和支助流动的影响，又反过来影响国际关系和支助流动，对于评估家庭在家庭之外的作用以及关于代际团结和正义的辩论至关重要。这些领域将通过新的跨领域主题加以探讨，明确侧重于了解人口变化背景下的代际关系和交流。最后，方案协调会第一届会议最显著的成功之一是在创新方法和建模领域，方案协调会第二届会议将继续在人口建模发展的前沿工作，与国家统计局和其他国家统计机构密切合作。方案协调会二期将继续在经济与社会研究委员会确定的三个至关重要的领域作出贡献：设计学术研究，考虑到其政策影响和对社会上人的福祉的高度影响；在研究方案中纳入重要的能力建设内容，同时培训人口变化多学科领域的新兴社会科学家；利用现有和新获得的定量数据来源，其中一些是ESRC的核心投资。与国家统计局和国家统计局以及其他用户的持续合作将确保我们的研究保持及时和相关。

Building on the achievements and lessons learned from CPC-I, the scientific programme for CPC-II reflects both continuity and change, with the continuation of a focus on fertility and family formation and on migration, but with the inclusion of new dimensions of mobility and the exploration of the implications of increasing longevity and the changing life course, as well a new cross-cutting theme focussing on how demographic change affects and is affected by patterns of intergenerational relations and exchange. We also plan to continue our work on innovative methodologies and new approaches to modelling population change. Our research in CPC-II will be organised around the five thematic areas of:1. Fertility and family change 2. Increasing longevity and the changing life course3. New mobilities and migration4. Understanding intergenerational relations & exchange5. Integrated demographic estimation and forecasting These thematic areas explicitly recognise the dynamic interaction of the individual components of population change both with each other and with economic and social processes. The first three themes reflect the three main components of population change: fertility, mortality and migration, and build on the scientific progress and achievements of CPC-I, extending the research agenda to address new and emergent areas. The rise in life expectancy is one of the greatest achievements of the twentieth century. CPC-II seeks to investigate the implications of longer lives, and a growing number of older people, for society and the economy. We also address the changing shape of the life course, exploring how the timing, sequencing and duration of demographic and socio-economic events are interacting to restructure the life course, how this may vary between and within cohorts and the implications of such changes for the design of life course-sensitive social policy. In terms of migration, the focus in CPC-I was on the demographic and socio-economic implications of national and transnational migration, including labour and housing market impacts. In CPC-II we will research 'new mobilities', 'new' both in terms of the drivers of movement but also in terms of the changing contexts of migration. We will offer original insights in areas such as the migration consequences of recession on mobility trajectories in terms of adaptation in situ, return or onward mobility, and the role of income expectations on emigration duration spells. Understanding how trends such as the ageing of the population, changes in family formation and dissolution and increased mobility (spatial, economic and social) are both shaped by and in turn shape international relations and flows of support is essential for assessing the role of the family beyond the household and for debates around intergenerational solidarity and justice. Such areas will be explored through the new cross-cutting theme, explicitly focussed on understanding intergenerational relations and exchange in the context of demographic change. Finally, one of the most notable successes of CPC-I has been in the area of innovative methods and modelling, and CPC-II will continue to work at the cutting edge of developments in demographic modelling, collaborating closely with ONS and other national statistical agencies.CPC-II will continue its contribution to three areas identified by the ESRC as of key importance: the design of academic research with a consideration for its policy implications and a high impact on the wellbeing of persons in society; the incorporation of a significant capacity-building element in the research programme with the training of emerging social scientists in the multi-disciplinary area of population change; and the exploitation of existing and newly-available sources of quantitative data, some of which are core ESRC investments. Continued engagement with ONS and NRS and other users will ensure our research remains timely and relevant.