Centre for Population Change

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Building on the achievements and lessons learned from CPC-I, the scientific programme for CPC-II reflects both continuity and change, with the continuation of a focus on fertility and family formation and on migration, but with the inclusion of new dimensions of mobility and the exploration of the implications of increasing longevity and the changing life course, as well a new cross-cutting theme focussing on how demographic change affects and is affected by patterns of intergenerational relations and exchange. We also plan to continue our work on innovative methodologies and new approaches to modelling population change. Our research in CPC-II will be organised around the five thematic areas of:1. Fertility and family change 2. Increasing longevity and the changing life course3. New mobilities and migration4. Understanding intergenerational relations & exchange5. Integrated demographic estimation and forecasting These thematic areas explicitly recognise the dynamic interaction of the individual components of population change both with each other and with economic and social processes. The first three themes reflect the three main components of population change: fertility, mortality and migration, and build on the scientific progress and achievements of CPC-I, extending the research agenda to address new and emergent areas. The rise in life expectancy is one of the greatest achievements of the twentieth century. CPC-II seeks to investigate the implications of longer lives, and a growing number of older people, for society and the economy. We also address the changing shape of the life course, exploring how the timing, sequencing and duration of demographic and socio-economic events are interacting to restructure the life course, how this may vary between and within cohorts and the implications of such changes for the design of life course-sensitive social policy. In terms of migration, the focus in CPC-I was on the demographic and socio-economic implications of national and transnational migration, including labour and housing market impacts. In CPC-II we will research 'new mobilities', 'new' both in terms of the drivers of movement but also in terms of the changing contexts of migration. We will offer original insights in areas such as the migration consequences of recession on mobility trajectories in terms of adaptation in situ, return or onward mobility, and the role of income expectations on emigration duration spells. Understanding how trends such as the ageing of the population, changes in family formation and dissolution and increased mobility (spatial, economic and social) are both shaped by and in turn shape international relations and flows of support is essential for assessing the role of the family beyond the household and for debates around intergenerational solidarity and justice. Such areas will be explored through the new cross-cutting theme, explicitly focussed on understanding intergenerational relations and exchange in the context of demographic change. Finally, one of the most notable successes of CPC-I has been in the area of innovative methods and modelling, and CPC-II will continue to work at the cutting edge of developments in demographic modelling, collaborating closely with ONS and other national statistical agencies.CPC-II will continue its contribution to three areas identified by the ESRC as of key importance: the design of academic research with a consideration for its policy implications and a high impact on the wellbeing of persons in society; the incorporation of a significant capacity-building element in the research programme with the training of emerging social scientists in the multi-disciplinary area of population change; and the exploitation of existing and newly-available sources of quantitative data, some of which are core ESRC investments. Continued engagement with ONS and NRS and other users will ensure our research remains timely and relevant.