权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Financial Volatility, Macroprudential Regulation and Economic Growth in Low-Income Countries

低收入国家的金融波动、宏观审慎监管和经济增长

基本信息

批准号：
ES/L012022/1
负责人：
Pierre-Richard Agenor
金额：
$ 35.56万
依托单位：
University of Manchester
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2014 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FL012022%2F1
关键词：
Financial Volatility Macroprudential Regulation Economic

项目摘要

The aim of the project is to study interactions between financial volatility, macroprudential regulation, and economic growth, in the context of low-income developing countries. The project will tackle these issues both analytically and empirically through the construction of theoretical macroeconomic models, the application of econometric techniques, and the preparation of country case studies, with the aim of drawing broad policy lessons for the design of macroprudential rules. The lessons from these contributions (in all, six theoretical and econometric papers, and two country case studies) will be summarized in three policy briefs, which will be circulated to a wider, non-academic audience.In its two theoretical contributions, the project will study (i) how "robust" prudential rules are, in a weak institutional environment, in their ability to mitigate financial volatility, taking into account their impact on borrowing costs, private capital accumulation, and growth, and (ii) the channels through which the lack of predictability in project aid disbursements may affect the capacity of recipient governments to formulate medium-term spending plans to spur growth. Both contributions will be based on stochastic endogenous growth models with financial intermediation and credit market imperfections.In its four empirical contributions, the project will deal with (i) the impact of financial regulation on financial volatility and its subsequent role in promoting economic growth, by mitigating the degree of volatility, (ii) the impact of aid and its volatility, along with that of remittances, on growth and poverty, (iii) the role of capital movements on both the level and the instability of the real exchange rate, as well as the implications of these movements for economic growth, and (iv) the impact of information sharing (credit registries and credit bureaus) on the structure of credit in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region where financial development is still weak. All empirical studies will use state-of-the-art dynamic panel data estimation techniques that address issues of endogeneity and reverse causality, prominent in this literature. The studies will make use of the largest possible set of countries and years, with particular attention to the sources of information regarding the regulatory and supervisory practices across banking systems.The project will also develop two case studies, both of which focusing on French-speaking Sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of the first study is to assess the relevance, the easiness to implement, and the expected effectiveness of a macroprudential framework for the WAEMU region, while the second study will be related to the second empirical component of the project where four cases will be identified under the condition that the aid (or remittances) to GDP ratio is (i) counter-cyclical and destabilizing, (ii) counter-cyclical and stabilizing, (iii) pro-cyclical and destabilizing, and (iv) pro-cyclical and stabilizing.The material developed in the above-cited contributions will serve as a basis for the preparation of three policy briefs, which will draw together the implications of (i) the various papers for the type of macroprudential tools that are appropriate for promoting growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, (ii) the analysis for the speed, and nature, of international financial integration for Sub-Saharan African countries, and (iii) the second case study. Dissemination will involve presentations to both academic and policy-oriented audiences, including national and international institutions involved in development. Two major conferences (one in France, the other in Senegal) will be organized during the course of the project. A particular effort will be made for dissemination in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa, where policymakers are likely to benefit directly from the lessons drawn from the project.

该项目的目的是研究低收入发展中国家金融波动、宏观审慎监管和经济增长之间的相互作用。该项目将通过构建理论宏观经济模型、应用计量经济学技术和编写国家案例研究，从分析和经验两方面解决这些问题，目的是为宏观审慎规则的设计吸取广泛的政策教训。这些贡献的教训（总共六篇理论和计量经济学论文，以及两个国家案例研究）将在三份政策简报中进行总结，这些简报将分发给更广泛的非学术受众。在其两份理论贡献中，该项目将研究（i）在薄弱的制度环境中，审慎规则如何“稳健”地缓解金融波动，考虑到它们对借贷成本、私人资本积累和增长的影响，以及㈡项目援助付款缺乏可预测性可能影响受援国政府制定中期支出计划以刺激增长的能力的渠道。这两项贡献都将以金融中介和信贷市场不完善的随机内生增长模型为基础，在其四项经验性贡献中，该项目将处理：㈠金融监管对金融波动的影响及其随后通过减轻波动程度在促进经济增长方面的作用，㈡援助的影响及其波动，沿着汇款的影响，（iii）资本流动对真实的汇率水平和不稳定性的作用，以及这些流动对经济增长的影响，（iv）信息共享（信用登记处和信用局）对撒哈拉以南非洲地区信贷结构的影响，该地区的金融发展仍然薄弱。所有的实证研究将使用最先进的动态面板数据估计技术，解决问题的endoeconomy和反向因果关系，突出在这方面的文献。这些研究将利用尽可能多的国家和年份，特别注意关于整个银行系统的管理和监督做法的资料来源，该项目还将编写两份个案研究报告，这两份报告都侧重于讲法语的撒哈拉以南非洲地区。第一项研究的目的是评估西非经货联盟区域宏观审慎框架的相关性、实施难易程度和预期效果，而第二项研究将涉及项目的第二个经验组成部分，其中将确定四个案例，条件是援助（或汇款）与国内生产总值的比率是㈠反周期和破坏稳定的，㈡反周期和稳定的，㈢助长周期和破坏稳定的，以及（四）顺周期和稳定：上述文件中编写的材料将作为编写三份政策简报的基础，这将汇集以下方面的影响：（i）关于适合促进撒哈拉以南非洲增长的宏观审慎工具类型的各种文件，（ii）分析撒哈拉以南非洲国家国际金融一体化的速度和性质;（iii）第二个案例研究。传播将包括向学术界和面向政策的听众，包括参与发展的国家和国际机构介绍情况。在项目执行期间，将组织两次大型会议（一次在法国，另一次在塞内加尔）。将特别努力在撒哈拉以南非洲法语国家传播，因为那里的决策者可能直接受益于从该项目中吸取的经验教训。