Financial Volatility, Macroprudential Regulation and Economic Growth in Low-Income Countries

该项目的目的是研究低收入发展中国家背景下金融波动、宏观审慎监管和经济增长之间的相互作用。该项目将通过构建理论宏观经济模型、应用计量经济学技术和编写国别案例研究，从分析和经验两方面解决这些问题，目的是为宏观审慎规则的设计汲取广泛的政策教训。这些贡献（总共六篇理论和计量经济学论文，两篇国家案例研究）的经验教训将总结在三份政策简报中，这些简报将分发给更广泛的非学术读者。在其两项理论贡献中，该项目将研究(i)考虑到对借贷成本、私人资本积累和增长的影响，在薄弱的制度环境下，“稳健”审慎规则缓解金融波动的能力如何；（ii）项目援助支出缺乏可预测性可能影响受援国政府制定中期支出计划以刺激增长的能力的渠道。这两项贡献都将基于金融中介和信贷市场不完善的随机内生增长模型。在其四个实证贡献中，该项目将处理(i)金融监管对金融波动的影响及其随后通过减轻波动程度促进经济增长的作用；（ii）援助及其波动以及汇款对增长和贫困的影响；（iii）资本流动对实际汇率水平和不稳定性的作用，以及这些流动对经济增长的影响。信息共享（信用登记和信用局）对撒哈拉以南非洲地区信贷结构的影响，该地区的金融发展仍然薄弱。所有的实证研究都将使用最先进的动态面板数据估计技术来解决内生性和反向因果关系的问题，这在本文献中很突出。这些研究将利用尽可能多的国家和年份，特别注意有关整个银行系统的管理和监督做法的信息来源。该项目还将开展两个案例研究，重点都是撒哈拉以南讲法语的非洲国家。第一项研究的目的是评估WAEMU地区宏观审慎框架的相关性、容易实施性和预期有效性，而第二项研究将与该项目的第二个实证组成部分相关，其中将在援助（或汇款）与GDP的比率为(i)反周期和不稳定，（ii）反周期和稳定，（iii）顺周期和不稳定的条件下确定四个案例，（四）顺周期稳定。上述贡献中编写的材料将作为编写三份政策简报的基础，这些简报将汇集以下方面的影响：(i)适合于促进撒哈拉以南非洲增长的宏观审慎工具类型的各种论文，（ii）对撒哈拉以南非洲国家国际金融一体化的速度和性质的分析，以及（iii）第二个案例研究。传播工作将包括向学术和面向政策的听众，包括参与发展的国家和国际机构介绍情况。在项目期间将组织两次主要会议（一次在法国，另一次在塞内加尔）。将特别努力在撒哈拉以南讲法语的非洲地区进行传播，那里的决策者可能直接受益于从项目中吸取的经验教训。

The aim of the project is to study interactions between financial volatility, macroprudential regulation, and economic growth, in the context of low-income developing countries. The project will tackle these issues both analytically and empirically through the construction of theoretical macroeconomic models, the application of econometric techniques, and the preparation of country case studies, with the aim of drawing broad policy lessons for the design of macroprudential rules. The lessons from these contributions (in all, six theoretical and econometric papers, and two country case studies) will be summarized in three policy briefs, which will be circulated to a wider, non-academic audience.In its two theoretical contributions, the project will study (i) how "robust" prudential rules are, in a weak institutional environment, in their ability to mitigate financial volatility, taking into account their impact on borrowing costs, private capital accumulation, and growth, and (ii) the channels through which the lack of predictability in project aid disbursements may affect the capacity of recipient governments to formulate medium-term spending plans to spur growth. Both contributions will be based on stochastic endogenous growth models with financial intermediation and credit market imperfections.In its four empirical contributions, the project will deal with (i) the impact of financial regulation on financial volatility and its subsequent role in promoting economic growth, by mitigating the degree of volatility, (ii) the impact of aid and its volatility, along with that of remittances, on growth and poverty, (iii) the role of capital movements on both the level and the instability of the real exchange rate, as well as the implications of these movements for economic growth, and (iv) the impact of information sharing (credit registries and credit bureaus) on the structure of credit in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region where financial development is still weak. All empirical studies will use state-of-the-art dynamic panel data estimation techniques that address issues of endogeneity and reverse causality, prominent in this literature. The studies will make use of the largest possible set of countries and years, with particular attention to the sources of information regarding the regulatory and supervisory practices across banking systems.The project will also develop two case studies, both of which focusing on French-speaking Sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of the first study is to assess the relevance, the easiness to implement, and the expected effectiveness of a macroprudential framework for the WAEMU region, while the second study will be related to the second empirical component of the project where four cases will be identified under the condition that the aid (or remittances) to GDP ratio is (i) counter-cyclical and destabilizing, (ii) counter-cyclical and stabilizing, (iii) pro-cyclical and destabilizing, and (iv) pro-cyclical and stabilizing.The material developed in the above-cited contributions will serve as a basis for the preparation of three policy briefs, which will draw together the implications of (i) the various papers for the type of macroprudential tools that are appropriate for promoting growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, (ii) the analysis for the speed, and nature, of international financial integration for Sub-Saharan African countries, and (iii) the second case study. Dissemination will involve presentations to both academic and policy-oriented audiences, including national and international institutions involved in development. Two major conferences (one in France, the other in Senegal) will be organized during the course of the project. A particular effort will be made for dissemination in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa, where policymakers are likely to benefit directly from the lessons drawn from the project.