Labor Outmigration, Agricultural Productivity and Food Security

我们建议在一个长期面临粮食安全问题的贫穷农业国，调查劳动力外流对农业生产率的影响。我们的目标是回答三个高度优先的科学和政策问题：(A)劳动力外流在多大程度上影响(I)农业生产力，(Ii)妇女参与农业，以及(Iii)退出农业？(B)汇款是否影响(I)农业技术使用，(Ii)妇女参与农业，以及(Iii)退出农业？(C)农业技术的使用和退出农业是否会影响随后的外流？据估计，L有2.14亿人--主要来自贫穷的农业地区，前往更工业化的国家--国际移民是学术界和政策领域的一个关键问题。这一史无前例的现象对移民发送地和接收地都产生了广泛的影响。这项研究的重点是一个具体但关键的后果--劳动力外流对迁徙地区农业生产率的影响。由于贫穷自给自足经济体的农业生产力与世界流行病之一--粮食安全--密切相关。粮农组织估计，2010-12年间约有8.7亿人营养不良。这些人中的绝大多数--8.52亿人生活在发展中国家。因此，提高贫穷国家的农业生产率是缓解这一问题的关键手段。这一拟议的项目旨在更好地了解劳动力外流和农业之间的关系，为粮食安全问题的科学和政策制定提供关键信息。移民不是随机发生的，这使得理解迁出与农业之间的联系变得复杂。此外，农业做法的变化和移民可能会相互影响。因此，对判断潜在的互惠关系的经验要求很高，限制了以前的研究对这些问题的说话能力。为了解决这种复杂性，我们将利用奇特万山谷家庭研究(CVFS)，这是一项社区水平的病例对照比较设计，通过对尼泊尔社区、家庭和个人的分层系统样本进行为期15年的小组研究。这项不同寻常的小组研究使我们能够解决非随机选择个人进行移民的问题。此外，病例对照设计在控制宏观影响(如气候、价格和政策)方面特别有效，以检测利益现象的变化和变异的影响：农场劳动力流失、汇款、农业技术使用、农业生产力和妇女参与农业。尽管有丰富的面板数据，但回答我们的具体问题需要适度的新数据收集。我们建议的小组测量将涉及多模式混合方法，数据收集具有评估关系所需的适当的时间顺序和时间精度。这项研究将产生高质量的科学成果，并将在世界各地广泛传播。这些结果是(I)全面的面板数据，有可能解决令人困惑的方法问题；(Ii)劳动力外流、农业生产率及其与性别相互作用的后果的经验证据。首先，将通过ICPSR和英国数据服务处提供数据，并通过网站向更广泛的受众提供出版物。其次，将通过在国家和国际会议上发表报告以及出版科学文章、研究简报和政策简报，在科学界传播研究成果。最后，我们的能力建设培训还将提高东道国机构(AFU、NARC和其他机构)的教职员工和科学家的科学和分析能力。

We propose to investigate the consequences of labor outmigration on agricultural productivity in a poor agricultural country persistently facing food security problems. We aim to answer three high-priority scientific and policy questions: To what extent(a) Does labor outmigration influence (i) agricultural productivity, (ii) women's participation in farming, and (iii) exit from farming?(b) Do remittances influence (i) farm technology use, (ii) women's participation in farming, and (iii) exit from farming?(c) Do farm technology use and exit from farming influence subsequent outmigration?With an estimated 214 million people l--mostly from poor agricultural regions to more industrialized countries-international migration is a key concern in scholarly and policy arenas. This unprecedented phenomenon has wide-ranging consequences both for migrant-sending and receiving locations. This study focuses on one specific, but crucial consequence - the impact of labor outmigration on agricultural productivity in migrant-sending areas. As the agriculture productivity in poor subsistence economies is closely connected with one of the world's epidemic problems: food security. FAO estimated about 870 million people were undernourished in the period 2010-12. The vast majority of these - 852 million live in developing countries. Thus, increased agricultural productivity in poor countries is a key tool for alleviating this problem. This proposed project aims to better understand the relationship between labor outmigration and agriculture, providing crucial information for scientific and policy development of food security concerns. Understanding the link between outmigration and agriculture is complicated by the fact that migration does not happen randomly. Additionally, changes in agricultural practices and migration are likely to influence each other. Thus, the empirical demands for adjudicating potential reciprocal relationships are high, limiting the ability of previous research to speak to these questions. To address this complication, we will leverage the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS), a case control comparison design at the community level with a 15-year panel study of a stratified systematic sample of communities, households, and individuals in Nepal. This unusual panel study enables us to address the non-random selection of individuals into migration. Furthermore, the case control design is particularly powerful for controlling macro-level effects (e.g. climate, prices, and policies) to detect the effect of change and variation in the phenomena of interest: farm labor loss, remittances, farm technology use, agricultural productivity, and women's participation in farming. Despite the wealth of panel data, answering our specific questions requires a modest level of new data collection. Our proposed panel measurement will involve multi-mode mixed methods data collection with appropriate temporal order and timing precision necessary to assess the relationships31. This study will generate high quality scientific outcomes that will be widely disseminated around the world. These outcomes are (i) comprehensive panel data with potential to address perplexing methodological problems; and (ii) empirical evidence of the consequences of labor outmigration, agricultural productivity, and its interplay with gender. First the data will be made available through ICPSR and UK Data Service and publications through websites will be provided to broader audiences. Second, the findings will be disseminated among the scientific communities through presentations at national and international conferences and publication of scientific articles, research briefs, and policy briefs. Finally, our capacity building training will also enhance scientific and analytical capacity of faculty and scientists of host country institutions (AFU, NARC and others).