China's International Financial Integration - Impact on Financial Development and Stability

中国国际金融一体化——对金融发展和稳定的影响

• 批准号: ES/P004253/1
• 负责人: Keyu Jin
• 金额: $ 40.49万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FP004253%2F1
• 关键词: China; International; Financial; Integration; Impact

One of the most important macroeconomic developments in the coming decades will be China's rapid financial integration into the world economy. Together as a group, emerging economies' GDP has risen from 20% to over 80% of advanced economies' GDP in the last two decades, and constitute 50% of world GDP. Global dynamics will increasingly be characterized by an advanced bloc and an emerging bloc, in which China plays a central role. There are important economic differences between the two sets of countries that can be crucial for determining the global equilibrium - perhaps most notably in financial development. In China's case its financial markets and macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from those of other emerging economies, suggesting caution when drawing historical parallels or lessons for globalization.As the world's second largest economy, China's full integration into global financial markets will invariably impact the world economy. At the same time, the ramifications on the Chinese economy - given the particular characteristics of its financial development - are still largely unknown, as a result of the dearth of frameworks to analyze heterogeneous economies in a global setting. Our aim is to study the impact of its financial liberalization for China and the rest of the world-from a positive and a normative perspective. Our research agenda focuses on developing hitherto non-existing frameworks for integrating China's particular financial market conditions in an open-economy macroeconomic setting. Typically, the existing literature focuses on the effects associated with particular financial frictions - such as collateral constraints, and limited enforcement in repayment. While these frictions may also be important for China, they are unlikely to be the most prominent. China's financial market distortions have certain distinct features: 1) financial repression; 2) a two-sector economy where the state sector is significantly less credit-constrained than the private sector; and 3) the prominence of banks in financial markets, among others.The research projects intend to explore the impact of a country with these financial frictions and the process of financial integration. Important questions that deserve a thorough investigation include: given the described frictions, what is the impact of financial globalization on capital flows, exchange rate dynamics, and growth? Under what conditions would financial crises occur, and are they more or less costly than the crises that would have occurred in a closed-economy? From a normative perspective, should financial development and financial liberalization happen sequentially or simultaneously? Would liberalization induce faster financial development? Are these policy goals potentially conflicting and/or self-defeating? How are global financial shocks transmitted to China, and conversely how are China's shocks transmitted to the rest of the world? China also differs from other emerging economies in its macroeconomic conditions. It is a net saver, and runs a significant current account surplus. Traditionally, emerging market financial crises have come from within: financial dollarisation, excessive deregulation, allocation inefficiencies due to high level of state ownership, etc. In the global financial crisis a negative shock from advanced economies was transmitted to emerging economies heavily financed through foreign investment, with domestic credit constraints amplifying these shocks. This research aims to fill a gap in the literature and directly address China's particular problems.

未来几十年最重要的宏观经济发展之一将是中国金融迅速融入世界经济。过去20年，新兴经济体总体GDP占发达经济体的比重从20%上升到80%以上，占世界GDP的比重达到50%。全球格局将日益以先进集团和新兴集团为特征，中国将在其中发挥核心作用。这两类国家之间存在着重要的经济差异，这对决定全球均衡至关重要——或许在金融发展方面最为明显。就中国而言，它的金融市场和宏观经济状况与其他新兴经济体有很大不同，这表明在借鉴全球化的历史相似之处或教训时要谨慎。作为世界第二大经济体，中国全面融入全球金融市场将不可避免地对世界经济产生影响。与此同时，由于缺乏在全球背景下分析异质经济的框架，鉴于中国金融发展的特殊性，其对中国经济的影响在很大程度上仍是未知的。我们的目的是从积极和规范的角度研究中国金融自由化对中国和世界其他地区的影响。我们的研究议程侧重于开发迄今为止尚不存在的框架，以将中国特定的金融市场条件融入开放经济的宏观经济环境中。通常，现有文献关注的是与特定金融摩擦相关的影响，例如抵押品约束和还款强制执行有限。尽管这些摩擦对中国来说可能也很重要，但它们不太可能是最突出的。中国金融市场扭曲具有以下几个显著特征：1)金融抑制；2)两部门经济，其中国有部门的信贷约束明显低于私营部门；3)银行在金融市场上的突出地位。研究项目旨在探讨一个国家与这些金融摩擦的影响和金融一体化的过程。值得深入研究的重要问题包括：鉴于所描述的摩擦，金融全球化对资本流动、汇率动态和增长的影响是什么？在什么条件下会发生金融危机？与在封闭经济中发生的危机相比，金融危机的代价是更高还是更低？从规范的角度看，金融发展和金融自由化是顺序发生还是同时发生？自由化会带来更快的金融发展吗？这些政策目标是否可能相互冲突和/或弄巧成拙？全球金融冲击是如何传导到中国的？反过来，中国的冲击又是如何传导到世界其他地区的？中国的宏观经济状况也不同于其他新兴经济体。它是一个净储蓄国，拥有巨额经常账户盈余。传统上，新兴市场的金融危机来自内部：金融美元化、过度放松管制、高水平国有制导致的配置效率低下，等等。在全球金融危机中，发达经济体的负面冲击传导至大量依靠外国投资融资的新兴经济体，而国内信贷紧缩又放大了这些冲击。本研究旨在填补文献空白，直接解决中国的特殊问题。

项目成果

Revitalizing the spirit of Bretton woods ---50 perspective on the future of the global economic system

重振布雷顿森林精神——全球经济体系未来50个视角

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Keyu Jin

The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Shocks

美国宏观经济政策冲击国际传导的令人费解的变化

• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of International Economics
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Ethan Ilzetzki

The evolution of production in China

中国生产的演变

• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Xiaoyu Huang

Misallocation Under Trade Liberalization

• DOI: 10.3386/w26188
• 发表时间: 2019-08
• 期刊: NBER Working Paper Series
• 作者: Keyu Jin

China's Ascent

中国的崛起

• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Finance & Development
• 作者: Keyu Jin